2:00PM Water Cooler 8/11/2023 | bare capitalism

2:00PM Water Cooler 8/11/2023 | bare capitalism

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By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Fowl Music of the Day

Jap Meadowlark (Jap)
Sturnella magna [magna Group], Subject south of Cattail Pond, Larimer, Colorado, United States, “Music, together with counter-singing by two birds. Good rattle name and temporary flight music at 4:43.” ~14 minutes of Meadowlark goodness; very summery. Readers actually appear to be taking to the meadowlarks. That makes me pleased!

* * *

Search for the Helpers

Terrific lengthy kind Tweet by Leonardi, concluding:

SARS-CoV-2 represents an unprecedented problem and I consider we are going to solely rise to satisfy it by working collectively. This implies placing apart personalities and never getting swept together with the group as a result of it’s the straightforward factor to do. It means standing up for what is true and inspiring folks to guard themselves, and most significantly their youngsters.

My pinned tweet is a letter a despatched to a college board as a result of I believe one in every of our basic duties as human beings is to safeguard those that can’t take care of themselves. Youngsters rely on adults to guard them, and proper now the adults are playing that repeat infections by SARS-CoV-2 won’t violate that belief. The stakes couldn’t be increased: we danger failing in our profound responsibility to make the world a secure place for the subsequent technology. Historical past will decide.

Don’t comply with the group. Even when it’s troublesome and there’s a value to be paid, do what is true.

The primary a part of the tweet reveals The Semmelweis Reflex™ in motion, one thing we’ve seen reasonably quite a lot of not too long ago. Effectively price a learn.

Final Friday, I wrote:

I don’t need Water Cooler to be an train in doomscrolling. That’s why there are birds on the prime, within the sky, and vegetation on the backside, for the earth. That mentioned, the world isn’t in one of the best form, and we do need to report that clearly, particularly within the face of denial, minimization, layers of impacted PMC bullshit. That mentioned, “”””if it bleeds, it leads,”””” that means that our famously free press has little incentive to report excellent news past clickbait-y heartwarming anecdotes. That’s one purpose I invented, quoting Mr. Rogers, “”””Search for the helpers”””” within the Covid part; to alleviate the bleakness. Let’s increase the precept

!

Hyperlinks to tales about helpers are additionally good:

If readers want to ship me extra hyperlinks or pictures of helpers in motion, you possibly can mail me with “”””Helpers”””” within the topic line. May very well be Covid, may very well be any scenario. Even useful animals!

Politics

“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in truth a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

Capitol Seizure

“Former Capitol Police Chief Steven Sund: “It Doesn’t Appear Like Individuals Need To Get To The Backside” Of January 6″ [RealClearPolitics]. The Interview:

Sund is flogging his guide. But it surely seems like an attention-grabbing guide:

“Solely the chief of Capitol Police, not the DoD, can revoke permits on Capitol grounds, but neither man reached out to me to debate these issues. Was this as a result of they knew that in the event that they knowledgeable me, I’d instantly notify the 2 sergeants at arms and demand army help to guard my officers and perimeter on January 6? Milley has acknowledged he feared that Trump was in search of a “”Reichstag second”” through which he might invoke the Revolt Act. However as an alternative of notifying the chief on the Hill concerning the threats of violence, SECDEF Miller and SECARMY McCarthy applied unprecedented restrictions on army help to legislation enforcement.”

I’ve not mastered the January 6 timeline. However the LIHOP v. MIHOP framing does appear to crop up reasonably rather a lot, and never only for this story.

2024

Time for the Countdown Clock!

* * *

“Decide warns of restraints to what proof Trump can speak about, agrees to restricted protecting order” [Associated Press]. “Presiding over her first listening to for the case, U.S. District Decide Tanya Chutkan in Washington heard arguments on easy methods to construction a protecting order that might stop a public airing of all of the proof turned over by prosecutors…. The decide mentioned that the extra anybody makes ‘inflammatory’ statements in regards to the case, the larger her urgency will probably be to maneuver the case extra shortly to trial to forestall the contamination of the jury pool. She famous that ‘arguably ambiguous statements’ may very well be construed as intimidation or harassment of potential witnesses….. The prosecutors proposed a protecting order barring Trump and his attorneys from disclosing supplies supplied by the federal government to anybody aside from folks on his authorized crew, doable witnesses, the witnesses’ attorneys or others accepted by the court docket. Trump’s crew, in the meantime, requested for a extra slender order that might bar the general public launch solely of the supplies deemed ‘delicate,’ reminiscent of grand jury paperwork. Protection attorneys wrote in court docket papers that the necessity to defend delicate info ‘doesn’t require a blanket gag order over all paperwork produced by the federal government.’…. [Chutkan] rejected prosecutors’ broader protecting order proposal that sought to forestall the general public launch of all proof they hand over to Trump’s protection as they put together for trial. She as an alternative appeared poised to impose a extra restricted protecting order that might bar the general public launch solely of supplies deemed ‘delicate,’ reminiscent of grand jury supplies. The federal government considers the overwhelming majority of proof within the case to be delicate. The decide sided with the prosecution on what supplies are thought of delicate and due to this fact protected below the order.”

“Decide delivers combined ruling on Trump protecting order in 2020 election case” [FOX]. The deck: “Decide in former President Trump election circumstances says solely ‘delicate’ materials lined below protecting order, then agrees with prosecution’s definition of delicate.” Extra: “Trump’s legal professional John Lauro then argued that the federal government’s request was ‘extraordinary.’ ‘We’re in uncharted waters, now we have a defendant working for president and his opponent has the DOJ bringing expenses in opposition to him,’ Lauro mentioned. ‘The truth that he’s tuning a political marketing campaign has to yield to the orderly administration of justice,’ Chutkan replied. She steered that Trump may launch proof about former Vice President Mike Pence’s testimony, for instance, to denigrate him as a witness. ‘The defendant’s need to reply to political opponents has to yield,’ Chutkan mentioned. ‘There are limits. This can be a prison case. The necessity for this case to proceed in a standard order means there are going to be limits on the defendant’s speech.’ She advised Lauro that how a protecting order may have an effect on the presidential marketing campaign was not her concern. ‘I can’t and won’t issue into my selections the impact it’s going to have on a marketing campaign for both facet,’ she mentioned.” • Besides the case, by definition, does all the pieces Chutkan mentioned she didn’t wish to do. For instance: Can Trump, as a candidate, say, in line with Chutkan, that the case is an instance of “orderly administration of justice”? Can Trump, because it had been, go meta?

“Decide Chutkan says Trump’s proper to free speech in January 6 case is ‘not absolute’” [CNN]. “The previous president has a proper to free speech, however that proper is ‘not absolute,’ Chutkan mentioned. “”Mr. Trump, like each American, has a First Modification proper to free speech, however that proper isn’t absolute. In a prison case reminiscent of this one, the defendant’s free speech is topic to the principles.’…. Whether or not or not Trump’s public statements are lined by the protecti]ve order that’s issued, she mentioned, in the event that they consequence within the intimidation of a witness or the obstruction of justice, ‘I will probably be scrutinizing them very rigorously.” • The difficulty for Trump’s attorneys — who do look younger (see the picture), so the query is whether or not they’re good and hungry sufficient — is whether or not Trump can, for as soon as, use his free speech rights strategically as an alternative of opening his huge yap impulsively. (Trump wants a surrogate on the path. As normal, he can’t discover good assist.)

“DOJ Desires Trump’s Trial on Election Costs to Be Jan. 2, 2024” [Bloomberg]. “The US Justice Division needs a Jan. 2 jury trial for former president Donald Trump on expenses he criminally conspired to impede the 2020 election. Trump opposes the schedule proposed by Particular Counsel John ‘Jack’ Smith’s workplace in a court docket submitting on Thursday. The previous president’s attorneys already signaled that they’ll argue for an extended time line, citing the complexity of the case and Trump’s crowded authorized and political schedule as he seeks a return to the White Home. Trump’s response in court docket is due Aug. 17. US District Decide Tanya Chutkan in Washington is anticipated to set a trial date at an Aug. 28 listening to. Trump has pleaded not responsible. A January trial would make the Washington case the primary of Trump’s three pending prison circumstances to go earlier than a jury. It additionally would of the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the US Capitol by Trump’s supporters — a key occasion within the prosecution time line — and the Jan. 15 Republican caucuses in Iowa.” • Liberal Democrat hysteria will probably be at its peak. I ponder what that absolutely uncontaminated jury pool will hear once they go residence at evening (or assume, if they’re sequestered. All will depend on what their media weight loss program was, I suppose).

* * *

“DeSantis greeted by ‘pudding fingers’ chant in Iowa” [Politico]. “It was an inauspicious begin for Ron DeSantis in Iowa on Friday. Chanting ‘Ron DeFascist’ and ‘pudding fingers’ on a megaphone whereas ringing cowbells, two protesters successfully reduce brief the Florida governor’s first marketing campaign cease of the day at a big roadside rock painted for struggle veterans. It was the second notable disruption of a Republican presidential candidate by the left in Iowa this week, after a Democrat on Thursday requested Mike Pence on the Iowa State Truthful, ‘Why did you commit treason on Jan. 6?’” On the DeSantis occasion, Kara Ryan of Des Moines mentioned she and her aunt, Heather Ryan, had been there on behalf of a political motion committee known as ‘Bitches Get Stuff Performed,’ that helps abortion rights. A person there to help DeSantis, sporting a hat given out by his aligned tremendous PAC, By no means Again Down, at one level tried to cease the noise by making an attempt unsuccessfully to knock the megaphone out of Heather Ryan’s palms. DeSantis, joined by his spouse Casey, nonetheless tried to provide remarks. ‘Individuals like that,’ he mentioned, referring to the 2 protesters drowning him out, ‘are what’s holding this nation again.’ The handful of veterans gathered erupted in applause. However the occasion was hurried, DeSantis’ assembly with the veterans temporary.” • Unbiased: “In March, Mr DeSantis selected to not outright deny that he ate chocolate pudding with three fingers on a personal flight in 2019. … ‘I don’t bear in mind ever doing that,’ the governor advised Piers Morgan in an interview on Fox Nation.”

* * *

“Republicans say an impeachment inquiry is simply an investigation: That’s not what they mentioned about Trump” [USA Today]. “With regards to the politically treacherous push to question President Joe Biden, Home Republicans have been cautious with their phrases. Republican lawmakers say they’re solely fascinated about an impeachment inquiry to research the White Home – not essentially formal impeachment proceedings in opposition to Biden to take away him from workplace. If the declare sounds acquainted, that’s as a result of it’s. That’s what Home Democrats mentioned in 2019 when former Home Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., introduced an impeachment inquiry into former President Donald Trump. Pelosi had lengthy confronted calls from Democratic lawmakers to open an impeachment inquiry, however the previous speaker publicly downplayed the prospect…. ‘They’re making an attempt to deflect’: Democrats hyperlink GOP push to question Biden to Trump indictments.”

“A Timeline Of Joe Biden’s Intervention In opposition to The Prosecutor Basic Of Ukraine” [Moon of Alabama (Lyman Alpha Blob)]. • I requested for a timeline; ask and ye shall obtain!

* * *

IA: “CNN’s John King: Iowa Voters’ Opinions On Ukraine Sound Like ‘The Opening Of An Previous Tucker Carlson Present’” [RealClearPolitics]. “CNN’s Jon King and Dana Bash touch upon this piece investigating how Iowa voters are approaching the 2024 presidential election. Jon King mentioned listening to Iowa voters’ opinions on Ukraine was ‘like watching the open of an previous Tucker Carlson present.’ ‘They’re good folks,’ he additionally mentioned. ‘They increase cash for the Lady Scouts, they go to church, however they consider issues that might break our fact-check machine.’ ‘” [pause for hysterical laughter]. Extra: “JON KING, CNN: If you happen to assume america needs to be supporting Ukraine within the combat in opposition to Putin, increase your hand. IOWA VOTERS: [silence].” • Asking me to vote with them. Not for (exact) causes I agree with, however ah nicely, nonetheless….

Democrats en Déshabillé

Affected person readers, it appears that evidently individuals are truly studying the back-dated put up! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are lots of updates. So I should do this. –lambert

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Occasion (“the Democrat Occasion is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated put up, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “stay” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Occasion is, in truth, a tough downside. I do assume the paragraph that follows is on level all the best way again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Occasion is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Hear, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Occasion didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” in fact.) Second, all of the working elements of the Occasion reinforce one another. Go away apart characterizing the relationships between parts of the Occasion (ka-ching, however not fully) these parts comprise a community — a Flex Web? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with property within the press and the intelligence group.

Word, in fact, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is restricted by different lessons; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

* * *

The Democrats the get together of the wealthy:

Not fairly proper. As I say above: “The Democrat Occasion is the political expression of the category energy of PMC,” who’ve increased incomes than the median American, no query. To me, “the wealthy” don’t need to work for a residing, therefore are capital.

Realignment and Legitimacy

#COVID19

“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Basic Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the handle given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reviews); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3). 

Keep secure on the market!

* * *

Maskstravaganza

Darth Vader’s brother:

Darryl Vader? 

Covid is Airborne

A terrific thread on all the pieces that may go unsuitable electrically with air filtration items over time:

Celeb Watch

“Metallica Can’t Power Insurer To Pay for Tour Canceled by COVID-19 Pandemic, Decide Guidelines” [Billboard]. From 2022, nonetheless germane. “A California decide says Metallica’s insurance coverage firm doesn’t must pay for six South American concert events that had been canceled when COVID-19 struck, because of an exclusion within the coverage for ‘communicable ailments.’” …. In a choice on Nov. 30 obtained by Billboard, Los Angeles Superior Court docket Decide Holly J. Fujie mentioned she didn’t purchase it. ‘The journey restrictions which brought about the live performance cancellations had been a direct response to the burgeoning COVID-19 pandemic,’ the decide wrote. ‘The proof … demonstrates that the COVID-19 pandemic spurred the journey restrictions to South America and restrictions on public gatherings. The COVID-19 pandemic was due to this fact the environment friendly proximate reason for the concert events’ cancellations.’ Metallica’s attorneys had additionally argued that the ‘ailments’ exclusion didn’t apply in any respect, because the actual wording of the coverage mentioned Lloyd’s wouldn’t pay protection stemming from a illness ‘or concern or menace thereof.’ Citing that language, the band mentioned ‘none of its bandmembers felt threatened or fearful.’ However Decide Fujie was equally unswayed, ruling that the Metallica coverage’s language ‘doesn’t require that the policyholders [themselves] really feel fearful or threatened.’” • If the origin of the “residing in concern” trope was Metallica… that might be a turn-up for the books.

“EXCLUSIVE: Sandra Bullock and Bryan Randall seen ‘exchanging vows’ and dancing in intimate Bahamas ceremony three years earlier than his ALS prognosis” [Daily Mail]. “Throughout this time DailyMail.com understands that which was nonetheless in place at her Beverly Hills residence on the tine of Randall’s demise. In response to one insider: ‘She simply stopped letting folks in the home. All of the testing was performed outdoors, on the pool home, two, even thrice per week. ‘It was an enormous endeavor, and the overall understanding was that it was as a result of Bryan was in there, at the back of the home, receiving care. ‘It was a horrible scenario. It obtained so the youngsters and even Sandra needed him out of the home at some instances. He was seeing a psychologist too at one level – I don’t know if that was due to the development of the sickness or the psychological toll of dealing with it.” • Too unhealthy Bullock didnt mannequin the conduct, although I’m unhappy for each of them.

“One thing Terrible”

Lambert right here: I’m getting the sensation that the “One thing Terrible” may be a sawtooth sample — variant after variant — that averages out to a completely excessive plateau. Numerous exceptionally nasty sequelae, probably deriving from immune dysregulation (says this layperson). To which we would add mind harm, together with character adjustments therefrom.

* * *

“NTSB releases uninformative preliminary report on United Maui dive” [The Air Current (PI)]. :

The Nationwide Transportation Security Board on April 25 quietly launched a bare-bones and uninformative preliminary report as a part of its investigation into the United Airways Boeing 777-200 that went into a pointy dive and restoration shortly after takeoff from Maui in December. The investigation into the nonetheless publicly unexplained December 18 dive is uncommon for the NTSB, which launched the investigation on February 14 solely after the incidence was revealed publicly by The Air Present on February 12. On the time, the NTSB mentioned that it anticipated a preliminary report inside two to a few weeks. The NTSB has had a spate of latest high-profile investigations in current months as investigators, airways and federal regulators attempt to perceive the causes of quite a few close-calls involving main U.S. carriers. The NTSB has caught to its normal reporting schedule for different incidents.” • ‘Tis a thriller!

 

Elite Maleficence

I don’t know what occurred to the Los Angeles County Public Well being division, however no matter, it’s not good. First, the handwashing poster. Now this:

This can be a lengthy thread demolishing handwashing propaganda alongside a lot the identical traces as droplet dogma. The research are unhealthy:

Worse, the important thing research is unhealthy:

Sadly, Twitter is what now we have. The blogosphere was so a lot better, for each writers and readers.

* * *

I don’t know what the world has come to when Trump’s Surgeon Basic makes extra sense on Covid coverage than any liberal Democrat:

Not that Armstrong is a pressure within the Republican get together. However nonetheless.

* * *

Discover the good folks spherical this desk:

* * *

Case Information

NOT UPDATED From BioBot wastewater information, August 7:

Lambert right here: I’m not pleased that Biobot can’t replace this information extra often. We’ve now surpassed the second peak (#2), of the earlier Covid pandemic an infection peaks. I want to congratulate the Biden administration and the general public well being institution, the CDC particularly, for this huge and unprecedented achievement. And a tip of the ol’ Water Cooler hat to the Nice Barrington goons, whose insurance policies have been adopted so assiduously! I ponder which of the earlier peaks (#1, #3, or #4) we’ll surpass subsequent. A curious truth: All of Biden’s peaks are all increased than Trump’s peaks. Reveals you what public well being can do when it’s firing on all eight cylinders! Musical interlude.

Regional information:

Curiously, the upswing begins earlier than July 4, which neither accelerates nor retards it.

Regional variant information:

EG.5 (the orange pie slice) nonetheless appears evenly distributed.

Variants

NOT UPDATED From CDC, August 5:

From CDC, July 22:

Lambert right here: Undecided what to make of this. I’m used to seeing a brand new variant take down the beforehand dominant variant. Right here it seems to be like now we have a “tag crew,” all working collectively to chop XBB.1.5 right down to measurement. I certain hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart relies upon, don’t all transfer on the inexperienced fields and pastures new (or have their entry to amenities reduce by directors of ailing intent).

CDC: “As of Might 11, genomic surveillance information will probably be reported biweekly, primarily based on the supply of constructive take a look at specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice per week; semiweekly.” Seems like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.

Covid Emergency Room Visits

NOT UPDATED From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, August 5:

Lambert right here: Enhance is much more distinct. (The black line is “mixed”, however it’s straightforward to see that Covid, the purple line, is driving all the pieces.)

NOTE “Charts and information supplied by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous 12 months, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not the complete pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “identical to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is acceptable for eachMR SUBLIMINAL I hate these folks a lot. Discover additionally that this chart reveals, at the least for its time interval, that Covid is not seasonal, though CDC is making an attempt to get us to consider that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the present institutional equipment for injections.

Positivity

NOT UPDATED From Walgreens, August 7:

3.4%. Curiously, individuals are citing to this, too, in addition to Biobot. Vertical-ish, although absolutely the numbers are nonetheless very small relative to June 2022, say. Curiously, these don’t correlate with the regional figures for wastewater. (It will be attention-grabbing to survey this inhabitants usually; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and large peer stress, went and obtained examined anyhow.)

From CDC, July 24:

Lambert right here: That is the CDC’s “Traveler-Primarily based Genomic Surveillance” information. They are saying “maps,” however I don’t see one…. 

Deaths

NOT UPDATED Iowa COVID-19 Tracker, August 9:

Lambert right here: The WHO information is nugatory, so I changed it with the Iowa Covid Information Tracker. Their methodology: “These information have been sourced, through the API from the CDC: https://information.cdc.gov/NCHS/Situations-Contributing-to-COVID-19-Deaths-by-Stat/hk9y-quqm. This visualization updates on Wednesday evenings. Information are provisional and are adjusted weekly by the CDC.” I can’t appear to get a pop-up that reveals a complete of the three causes (prime proper). Readers?

Complete: 1,171,692   1,170,864 = 828 (828 * 365 = 302,220 deaths per 12 months, in the present day’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “residing with” Covid (fairly a bit increased than the minimizers would really like, although they will discuss themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I may need to determine that is what the powers-that-be take into account “mission completed” for this explicit tranche of demise and illness). 

Extra Deaths

NOT UPDATED The Economist, August 6:

Lambert right here:  Not up to date every day. Odd when it was, odd when it stopped. Primarily based on a machine-learning mannequin. (The CDC has an extra estimate too, however because it ran perpetually with a large typo within the Legend, I figured no one was actually taking a look at it, so I obtained rid it. )

Stats Watch

Inflation: “United States Producer Costs Change” [Trading Economics]. “Annual producer inflation within the US accelerated to 0.8% in July of 2023 from 0.2% in June, above forecasts of 0.7%, amid base results.”

* * *

Tech: “The Reddit Protest Is Lastly Over. Reddit Gained.” [Gizmodo]. “Regardless of the infinite blackout threats, most moderators relented because the weeks rolled by. Three main holdouts had been r/aww, r/pics, and r/movies, a few of Reddit’s largest communities that account for greater than 91 million subscribers. The three subreddits reopened weeks in the past however adopted guidelines by fashionable vote that prohibited content material that didn’t characteristic HBO’s John Oliver, rendering the boards ineffective for his or her earlier functions. For some time, the subreddits stood sturdy, however r/movies was the primary to backpedal, dropping the John Oliver rule however requiring all posts to characteristic profanity. Quickly that rule was deserted as nicely. Final week, the moderators of r/aww introduced the John Oliver rule was over, and over the weekend r/pics quietly gave up the protest as nicely, as reported by the Verge. ‘Greater than a month has handed, and as issues on the web go, the fervour for the protest has waned and other people’s consideration has shifted to different issues,’ an r/aww moderator wrote in a put up in regards to the rule change. In response to Reddark, a web site that tracks the subreddit protest, 1,843 of the unique 8,829 protesting communities are nonetheless darkish. However most of those are small communities, and in the present day solely protesting subreddit with over 10 million subscribers is r/health. Even when these subreddits by no means reopen, relinquishing the John Oliver rule formally brings the Reddit protests to a detailed. Although the Reddit crew probably brought about everlasting harm to the platform and its relationship with customers, Spez obtained his method. However that victory may not imply a lot. Reddit, together with Twitter (or X, as Musk would really like you to name it), nonetheless have thriving communities. However the tides are shifting. Even Instagram and Fb are struggling to safe long-term relevance as rivals like TikTok proceed to dominate, and TikTok’s future within the US isn’t sure both because it faces down a possible federal ban. We’re on the daybreak of a platform shift. As Google tunes its algorithms and incorporates extra AI content material into its search outcomes, the enterprise mannequin of the complete web is present process an unpredictable change. Over the long run, Reddit’s scrambling efforts at monetary safety could show simply as futile because the moderators’ makes an attempt to combat again.” • Returning to the blogosphere would resolve all this. No?

* * *

At present’s Worry & Greed Index: 66 Greed (earlier shut: 69 Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 78 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Aug 11 at 1:54 PM ET.

The Gallery

“Bureaucratic Collage: Ghosts within the System” [Art Institute of Chicago]. The deck: “Forms is a system of processes that organizes authority throughout establishments.” Hmm. Extra: “What typically involves thoughts once I consider forms is the circulation of paperwork, often within the type of paperwork or media within the type of movie and pictures. A defining attribute of this materials is its performance; its supposed kind fulfills an energetic objective inside the system it serves. The artwork of collage is usually characterised by frayed seams, revealed edges, and uneven surfaces, and may typically seem as a Frankensteinian concoction of gear. Via the mixture of disparate parts and materials mutations, the assembled work turns into one thing else. And when it’s mixed with forms, it turns into one thing else altogether.” For instance:

(A collage of the lunar floor).  And:

(A collage of metropolis information on artists.) Neat stuff! Makes me surprise what may very well be performed with the information in Trump’s court docket circumstances…. 

The Jackpot

“There is no such thing as a ‘getting again to regular’ with local weather breakdown” [Mark Blyth, Guardian]. From 2021, nonetheless germane. “[Climate breakdown] is . In plain English, there isn’t a imply, there isn’t a common, there isn’t a return to regular. It’s a technique visitors into the unknown. As research after research reveals, the one factor people hate coping with is uncertainty. Threat – odds you possibly can rely on – is ok. However techniques with actually random outcomes freak us out. We’re additionally horrible at coping with scale. As evolutionary psychologists put it, ‘Our trendy skulls home a stone age thoughts.’ It advanced to resolve issues in a fairly steady mean-reverting world with face-to-face interactions. Once we encountered issues that freaked us out in such a world, we stuffed within the gaps with a mutually agreed story (faith or political ideology, for instance) that helped us ignore what we couldn’t clarify. However now we stay in a world we will clarify, and but reasonably than settle for what we all know and act upon that data, we more and more think about our world to be completely different from the way it truly is.” • I’m undecided Blyth has the causality proper right here, with all this speak about “stone age minds.” He leaves propaganda out of the query. Therefore he leaves class out of the equation. I grant that is the stupidest timeline, but it surely was made silly.

Class Warfare

“The Case for Extra Strikes” [The Nation]. “At present the technique card deck has been reshuffled, and strikes are on the desk once more. Reform leaders within the UAW have already began negotiations with the Huge Three automakers—Ford, Stellantis, and Basic Motors, masking 150,000 staff—forward of contracts expiring on September 14. With the marketing campaign ramp-up on a brief timeline, the union isn’t losing a second, whipping up preventing enthusiasm among the many rank and file with contract actions nationwide. We’re witnessing an uptick in labor militancy the likes of which we haven’t seen in many years. 1000’s of staff have began picket traces across the nation, from hanging screenwriters and actors to lodge staff, locomotive manufacturing staff, and Amazon staff. It gained’t final perpetually. The time to construct credible strike threats and hit the bricks is now.” • Or one huge one. I ponder if the union management realizes how tightly coupled the financial system actually is?

Information of the Wired

“Need to pwn a satellite tv for pc? Seems it’s surprisingly straightforward” [The Register]. “In a presentation on the Black Hat safety convention in Las Vegas, Johannes Willbold, a PhD pupil at Germany’s Ruhr College Bochum, defined he had been investigating the safety of satellites. He studied three varieties of orbital equipment and located that many had been completely defenseless in opposition to distant takeover as a result of they lack essentially the most primary safety techniques. ‘Individuals assume that satellites are safe,’ he mentioned. ‘These are costly property and they need to have encryption and authentication. I assume that criminals assume the identical and they’re too arduous to focus on and it’s essential be some sort of cryptography genius. Perhaps it wasn’t a good suggestion to provide this discuss.’” • Oh.

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Contact info for vegetation: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a test in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me photos of vegetation. Greens are high quality! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! In order for you your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it in the beginning of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From TF:

TF writes: “Hypericum prolificum in Isham Park, higher Manhattan. Certain is fashionable with these massive bees. They bounce round shortly on the blooms.” You may truly see the blooms shake when a heavy bee is available in for a touchdown.

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Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not lined by the annual NC fundraiser. So when you see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see anyplace else, please don’t hesitate to specific your appreciation in tangible kind. Bear in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common constructive suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. Once I get no donations for 5 or ten days I get apprehensive. Extra tangibly, a relentless trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I think about that trickle when setting fundraising objectives:

Right here is the display screen that can seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:

If you happen to hate PayPal, you possibly can electronic mail me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I offers you instructions on easy methods to ship a test. Thanks!

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