2:00PM Water Cooler 8/29/2023 | bare capitalism

2:00PM Water Cooler 8/29/2023 | bare capitalism

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By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
2:00PM Water Cooler 8/29/2023 | bare capitalism

As traditional after a weekend and a Monday dereliction of responsibility, I’ve far an excessive amount of materials, and so the Covid part is shorter than it must be. Tomorrow I’ll do higher! –lambert

Chicken Music of the Day

Jap Whip-poor-will, Flycatcher Flats, Sleepy Creek Rd, Berekely Co., Hedgesville,WV
Berkeley, West Virginia, United States. “Grownup male Jap Whip-poor-will singing vegetation close to the highway.”

* * *

Politics

“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are actually a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

The Constitutional Order

Two households, each alike in dignity,
In truthful Verona, the place we lay our scene,
From historic grudge break to new mutiny,
The place civil blood makes civil arms unclean. –William Shakespeare, Romeo and Juliet

Shakespeare says the 2 households are “alike” in dignity, however he doesn’t say how a lot dignity they really have. If Verona’s households are like our events, the reply is “not a lot.”

* * *

“The Sweep and Power of Part Three” [William Baude and Michael Stokes Paulsen, University of Pennsylvania Law Review]. I extremely suggest this piece (and the following dialogue at NC, beginning right here). As a former English main and a fan of shut studying, I’m not averse to “originalism,” of which Baude and Paulsen present a magisterial instance, within the sense that understanding the regulation as a textual content should start with understanding the plain, public which means of the phrases used when the textual content was written. That’s how I learn Shakespeare, or Joyce, so why not the Structure? Simply so long as understanding doesn’t finish there! In any case, I’m working via it. One factor I discover is that there do appear to have been fairly a number of rebellions and insurrections, not simply the Civil Conflict. To me, that is parallel to at least one lesson I drew from Mike Duncan’s Revolutions podcast (episode 1): There are fairly a number of revolutions, too. Alert reader Pensions Man summarizes Baude and Paulsen as follows:]

The authors undergo an exhaustive textual and originalism evaluation of Part Three, and their Federalist Society leanings don’t deter them from reaching their conclusion that officers in each State who’re charged with figuring out candidate {qualifications} ought to conclude that Donald Trump is disqualified from being on ballots due to the oath he took on Inauguration Day 2017 and subsequently violated via his position within the revolt that occurred on January 6, 2021.

Taking “revolt” as learn (I have to do extra studying), extra on my persevering with protection of Part Three.

* * *

“Trump 14th Modification: New Hampshire GOP Feuds As States Grapple With Disqualifying Trump From Poll” [Forbes]. “Bryant ‘Corky’ Messner, a New Hampshire legal professional who ran for the U.S. Senate in 2020 with Trump’s endorsement, has recommended he intends to file a authorized problem questioning Trump’s 2024 candidacy beneath Part 3 of the 14th Modification… Messner met with New Hampshire’s Republican Secretary of State David Scanlan on Friday to debate the problem, Scanlan mentioned, prompting pushback from the state’s Republican Celebration, whose chief Chris Ager mentioned the occasion ‘will struggle to ensure that candidates are usually not denied entry to the poll.’ … Past New Hampshire, Michigan’s Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson informed MSNBC she intends to hunt a authorized opinion on the problem from the state’s legal professional common ‘when the time is correct,’ and recommended she would work along with her counterparts in different battleground states like Nevada, Pennsylvania and Georgia to find out easy methods to proceed. Voters have filed lawsuits in Florida and Michigan difficult the constitutionality of Trump being on the poll, which may pressure state election officers’ arms, and authorized disputes over the problem are broadly anticipated to make it to the Supreme Courtroom.” 

2024

Time for the Countdown Clock!

* * *

“Trump drops 6 factors in post-debate GOP ballot” [The Hill]. “Former President Trump noticed a slight lower in his assist amongst Republican main voters after he skipped the primary GOP debate final week, in line with a brand new ballot from Emerson Faculty.” • Trump’s lead is so huge {that a} six-point drop is “slight”:

Sure, just one ballot, however notice it contradicts the narrative: DeSantis, Pence, and Haley took votes from Trump; and Ramaswamy was a loser.

“The meme that also holds true about Trump’s maddening lasting energy” [MSNBC]. “Throughout Donald Trump’s first presidential run and time in workplace, there was a recurrent meme that was utilized to him: ‘#nothingmatters.’ It doesn’t matter what Trump did or mentioned, regardless of how offensive, controversial or hypocritical his public statements, none of it affected how Republican voters considered him, and none of it introduced any penalties for him. For 2024, it’s more and more clear that ‘#nothingmatters’ must return — although for a barely totally different motive. This can be a marketing campaign during which, actually, nothing issues. Voters way back made up their minds about Trump: About 40% assume he’s nice, and the remainder of the nation can’t stand him. In a common election, his numbers will likely be a bit greater as a result of there are Republicans who don’t like Trump however can’t think about voting for a Democrat. However there received’t be a broad swath of the citizens giving him a brand new look…. Barring the aforementioned unexpected circumstance, Trump will win the 2024 GOP nomination, face off in opposition to Biden within the common election — and sure lose. And nothing that occurs earlier than November 2024 will matter.” • This appears to be the traditional knowledge; 2024 will not be unstable. I discover that tough to imagine.

* * *

The Occasions model of a posh and tragic story:

“The Story Behind DeSantis’s Anecdote About an ‘Abortion Survivor’: [New York Times]. “Ron DeSantis wished to dodge a debate query a few six-week federal abortion ban.” That’s not reporting, until the reporters are telepaths. However extra: “So the Florida governor pulled out a private story, one which had not too long ago turn out to be a part of his pitch to voters on the necessity for larger regulation of abortion rights. ‘I do know a woman in Florida named Penny,’ he mentioned. ‘She survived a number of abortion makes an attempt. She was left discarded in a pan. Luckily, her grandmother saved her and introduced her to a distinct hospital.’ … The jarring anecdote caught the eye of viewers on social media, who speculated that Mr. DeSantis was fabricating the story. However Penny does exist. Mr. DeSantis’s marketing campaign says the governor has met her. She is Miriam Hopper, who goes by Penny and is an anti-abortion activist who lives in Florida and calls herself an ‘abortion survivor.’ … In a 2013 interview with the Florida radio station WFSU, performed in the midst of a statehouse debate over new abortion restrictions, Ms. Hopper mentioned that her story was based mostly on what she had been informed by her household. She mentioned that her father, raised through the Nice Melancholy, didn’t need one other little one and that she suspected a botched abortion had despatched her mom to the hospital with the problems…. Ms. Hopper’s mom, aunt, father and grandmother have died. It doesn’t seem that the incident was lined in information stories [Wrong! See below]…. Ms. Hopper mentioned that her story was based mostly on what she had been informed by her household. She mentioned that her father, raised through the Nice Melancholy, didn’t need one other little one and that she suspected a botched abortion had despatched her mom to the hospital with the problems.” • Household historical past jogs my memory of Liz Warren’s Cherokee ancestry. Learn on–

The Miami Herald model:

“DeSantis mentioned at debate a lady survived ‘a number of abortion makes an attempt.’ Right here’s the true story” [Julie Brown, Miami Herald]. “Penny is actual and her final identify is Hopper. However DeSantis failed to notice key particulars from her outstanding story: The one who tried to finish Penny’s life within the womb was not a health care provider and even an unlawful abortion supplier — it was her father…. This text relies on earlier recorded statements made by Hopper, newspaper clippings, public data and an interview with a member of the family who after chatting with a journalist at size requested to not be recognized. She confirmed that Hopper’s model of occasions has been informed in household circles for years.” • So the Occasions bungles the sourcing and will get the daddy’s position mistaken (moreover burying it paragraphs deep). 

* * *

“There’s Extra Than Meets the Eye to Ramaswamy’s Local weather Remark” [Time]. “It’s value unpacking Ramaswamy’s debate feedback in larger depth. He began by declaring, brashly, that the ‘the local weather agenda is a hoax’ after which adopted up saying that the ‘anti-carbon agenda is the moist blanket on our financial system.’ He concluded arguing that ‘the truth is extra individuals are dying of dangerous local weather change insurance policies than they’re of precise local weather change.’ Ramaswamy makes clear from the bounce that he opposes local weather coverage, however nowhere does he really deny that human conduct is contributing to local weather change. Certainly, by speaking in regards to the ‘agenda’ fairly than local weather change itself he tacitly acknowledges the truth of local weather change, or on the very least that the outdated positioning of local weather change as a hoax is now not apt. In interviews following the talk, he twisted local weather science, however he didn’t deny the phenomenon of local weather change even when given a number of alternatives to take action. However Ramaswamy did have quite a bit to say in regards to the validity of the ‘agenda,’ presumably referring to insurance policies being applied by the Biden Administration to sluggish emissions. Ramaswamy’s argument has an apparent political logic to it. Polling exhibits that the overwhelming majority of Individuals know little or no in regards to the Inflation Discount Act and different Biden local weather insurance policies. And whereas Individuals more and more view local weather change as a risk, they rank it far under financial issues. Certainly, one ballot launched earlier this yr confirmed that solely 38% of Individuals can be keen to pay a $1 monthly carbon payment to deal with local weather change. Briefly, for a lot of voters, worry of a weak financial system will outweigh fears over local weather change. By branding local weather coverage as an financial downer, he and others can poison the effectively for any future local weather coverage.” • To repeat:

Hmm. I can see how Biden’s local weather agenda is a hoax — although not in the way in which Ramaswamy meant — however that’s not what Ramaswamy tweeted.

* * *

“Bernie Sanders downplays fellow octogenarian Biden’s age: ‘Appeared superb to me’” [New York Post]. “Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) on Sunday downplayed fellow octogenarian President Biden’s age, recalling a latest assembly during which the 80-year-old commander-in-chief ‘appeared superb.’ ‘I met with the president, I don’t know 5 – 6 weeks in the past. We had a fantastic dialogue. He appeared superb to me,’ Sanders informed NBC Information’ ‘Meet the Press.’” Generally Biden is superb; I’d speculate as a result of his workers juices him up. Different occasions, he’s not superb.

Daou on Sanders:

“Sanders hits at Cornel West over criticism of Biden” [Politico]. “‘The place I disagree with my good pal, Cornel West, is I believe in these actually very tough occasions, the place there’s a actual query whether or not democracy goes to stay in america of America. … I believe we’ve bought to carry the whole progressive group to defeat Trump or whoever the Republican nominee will likely be, [and] assist Biden,’ Sanders mentioned on CNN’s ‘State of the Union.’” “‘Nevertheless, progressives nonetheless should ‘demand that the Democratic Celebration, not simply Biden, have the center to tackle company greed and the huge ranges of revenue and wealth inequality that we see immediately,’ Sanders added.” • Unhappy to see. 

* * *

“Burisma’s Devon Archer met with then-Secretary of State Kerry simply weeks earlier than Shokin was fired” [FOX]. “‘I’ve mentioned repeatedly in my earlier interviews that [then-Ukrainian President Petro] Poroshenko fired me on the insistence of the then-Vice President Biden as a result of I used to be investigating Burisma,’ [Former Ukrainian Prosecutor General Viktor Shokin] mentioned within the interview. ‘[Poroshenko] understood and so did Vice President Biden that had I continued to supervise the Burisma investigation, we’d have discovered the info in regards to the corrupt actions that they had been participating in. That included each Hunter Biden and Devon Archer and others.” And however: “Nevertheless, in an announcement to Fox Information, the White Home pointed to indications that Shokin was fired as a result of he had been too tender on corruption. The White Home additionally acknowledged that Shokin’s workplace had not been investigating Burisma or Hunter on the time of his ouster in March 2016, and it pointed to a few stories printed inside weeks of one another in 2019 by the Washington Submit, Related Press and New York Occasions that mentioned Shokin’s workplace wasn’t investigating Burisma.” • That’s superb, however after seeing how the story of Hunter Biden’s laptop computer was suppressed by those self same venues — to not point out the Twitter information, which present an unholy emblobbification among the many press, the intelligence group, and the Democrat Celebration, the White Home’s argument from authority now not holds water.

“Khanna says Biden aides heard his message on being overprotective: ‘Let him be on the market’” [The Hill]. “When requested on CBS’s ‘Face The Nation’ if Biden’s prime aides bought Khanna’s message in April that they’re too overprotective of him, Khanna mentioned, ‘I believe they do. The president has a fantastic story to inform.’” Extra Covid deaths with Trump? A proxy warfare with a nuclear energy, and one we’re shedding? Extra: “He’s [Biden] a greater politician than anybody who works for him,’ Khanna mentioned Sunday.” That’s really true, which is fairly horrifying. ‘Let him be on the market.’” • If I assumed Khanna was Machiavellian, I’d say he was setting Biden up for a fall; and sooner, fairly than later.

* * *

RFK asking for my vote (1):

Personal fairness shouldn’t even be within the housing enterprise. 

RFK asking for my vote (2):

The intelligence group shouldn’t even be within the information enterprise. 

* * *

“Op-Ed: Cornel West, A Prophet For President” [Osagyefo Sekou, NewsOne]. On the finish: “[E]lectoral politics are crammed with swift transitions. Poised the increase $70 billion by subsequent yr, the centrist No Labels Celebration is courting maverick Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), which has antagonistic results on the Democratic and Republican institution. Surprisingly, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (D) obtained 15% assist amongst a pattern of the Democratic Celebration’s main in a Harvard CAPS/Harris ballot. His bombastic persona and star energy make him a first-rate candidate for an unbiased run after a Democratic main that he’s absolutely going to lose. Donald Trump’s authorized troubles may shave off simply sufficient confidence that he loses a tightly contested Republican main, and he won’t go quietly into the night time. So then, if No Labels Celebration, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and Donald Trump run unbiased candidacies, splintering the Democratic and Republican Events, all bets are off. The favored vote and Electoral Faculty may very well be divided in not less than 4 methods. The essential problem for West and the Inexperienced Celebration manifold: 1) achieve poll entry; 2) create a complete floor recreation; 3) increase sufficient cash to be efficient; and 4) construct out a political discourse that can form public conversations.  On this situation, there’s a path to the White Home for Cornel West.” • Briefly, 2024 will be unstable.

* * *

Williamson asking for my vote:


* * *

“No Labels to host nominating conference in Dallas in April: Joe Lieberman” [The Hill]. “‘If we run it’s going to be a bipartisan ticket, so not solely will now we have concluded that it actually can win, however as a result of it’s bipartisan we’re assured it’s going to take equally from each events, so the concept that we’re going to spoil it and reelect President Trump simply isn’t reasonable,’ Lieberman mentioned. No Labels has been pushing for a bipartisan ticket to land a third-party bid to the White Home and has not too long ago launched a marketing campaign in New Hampshire…. Ben Chavis, the Democratic co-chairman of No Labels, additionally informed NBC Information in June that the group ‘just isn’t and won’t be a spoiler in favor of Donald Trump in 2024.’ No Labels confirmed to The Hill on the time it would finish its third-party push if Biden is forward within the polls subsequent spring.” 

Democrats en Déshabillé

Affected person readers, evidently individuals are really studying the back-dated submit! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are numerous updates. So I must try this. –lambert

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Celebration (“the Democrat Celebration is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated submit, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “stay” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Celebration is, actually, a tough downside. I do assume the paragraph that follows is on level all the way in which again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Celebration is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Pay attention, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Celebration didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working components of the Celebration reinforce one another. Depart apart characterizing the relationships between components of the Celebration (ka-ching, however not completely) these components comprise a community — a Flex Internet? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with property within the press and the intelligence group.

Observe, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is proscribed by different lessons; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

* * *

Primaries? What primaries?

“Column: Nancy Pelosi on Dylan, the Grateful Lifeless, a wild night time in Argentina — and the therapeutic energy of music” [Los Angeles Times]. “She’s mates with Weir and drummer Mickey Hart, having seen the Lifeless and diverse iterations extra occasions than she remembers. On a number of events, the elegantly styled lawmaker has been seen dancing within the wings, 4-inch heels and all.” • As a palate cleanser: 

Unexpectedly humorous and candy. (I’m additionally please the reviewer singles out Lesh, my hero, first!)

#COVID19

“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Common Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the handle given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater stories); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3). 

Keep secure on the market!

* * *

Coverage

On faculty closures:

Elite Maleficence

“Hospitals are killing sufferers as a result of they don’t really feel like doing an infection management” [The Gauntlet]. “I can’t imagine I’ve to say this, however an infection management just isn’t one thing that may occur half time, in some instances, or solely throughout surges. As with gloves for bloodborne or hand washing for fomite transmission, protocols for airborne an infection management are a set of practices applied completely and persistently to guard sufferers and healthcare employees alike. We don’t cease hand washing as a result of norovirus instances are down. We don’t cease carrying gloves as a result of HIV instances are down. As a health care provider, if you happen to’re arguing that it is best to be capable of expose sufferers to COVID as a result of an infection management annoys you, you shouldn’t be a health care provider. Discover a new profession. I guess you’d love denying insurance coverage claims. I guess you’d be a pure. Making this image much more hair-tearingly irritating for disabled folks avoiding healthcare settings is that the counter-argument for correct airborne an infection management actually is nothing past “”don’t wanna.”” There is no such thing as a logical argument for permitting the unfold of COVID-19 in healthcare settings. There is no such thing as a scientific debate in regards to the methods during which COVID is spreading. There is no such thing as a danger evaluation which exhibits that most cancers sufferers or individuals who’ve simply had coronary heart assaults ought to think about a COVID an infection to be no large deal. There may be actually no excuse for this weird, unscientific mistreatment of sufferers aside from gross incompetence, institutional negligence, and systemic ableism.”

* * *

Case Knowledge

NOT UPDATED!!! From BioBot wastewater information, August 24:

Lambert right here: Pleased recollections of tape-watching days! Closing in on a Trump-era surge stage; Biden’s, after all, are greater. Will probably be fascinating to see what occurs when faculties open up. I want to congratulate the Biden administration and the general public well being institution, the CDC particularly, for this huge and unprecedented achievement. And a tip of the ol’ Water Cooler hat to the Nice Barrington goons, whose insurance policies have been adopted so assiduously! A curious reality: All of Biden’s peaks are greater than Trump’s peaks. Reveals you what public well being can do when it’s firing on all eight cylinders! Musical interlude. NOTE I’m not blissful that Biobot can’t replace this information extra regularly. 

Regional information. As we will see, the nationwide flattening is because of the Midwest downward swoop:

Regional variant information, August 19:

EG.5 (the orange pie slice) nonetheless appears evenly distributed. Sadly, the Midwest information just isn’t out there, so we will’t infer something in regards to the Midwest surge and any variant(s), come what may. 

• “Anthony Fauci on the latest spike in Covid instances” [BBC]. “In a large ranging interview about his life after retiring as director of the Nationwide Institute of Allergy and Infectious Ailments, Anthony Fauci tells the BBC’s Katty Kay that 96% of the US inhabitants has a level of immunity once more 

Variants                 

NOT UPDATED From CDC, August 19:

Lambert right here: Prime of the leaderboard: EG.5 (“Eris“). I’m not highlighting the BA.2’s as a result of the interactive model exhibits that these BA.2’s been hanging round at a low stage for months.

From CDC, August 5:

Lambert right here: Undecided what to make of this. I’m used to seeing a brand new variant take down the beforehand dominant variant. Right here it seems like now we have a “tag staff,” all working collectively to chop XBB.1.5 right down to dimension. I positive hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart relies upon, don’t all transfer on the inexperienced fields and pastures new (or have their entry to services lower by directors of sick intent).

CDC: “As of Might 11, genomic surveillance information will likely be reported biweekly, based mostly on the supply of optimistic take a look at specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice per week; semiweekly.” Seems like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.

Covid Emergency Room Visits

From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, August 19:

Lambert right here: I modified this ER chart to a Covid-only chart damaged down by age. Observe the 0-1 age group.

NOTE “Charts and information supplied by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous yr, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not the whole pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “identical to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is suitable for eachMR SUBLIMINAL I hate these folks a lot. Discover additionally that this chart exhibits, not less than for its time interval, that Covid is not seasonal, though CDC is making an attempt to get us to imagine that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the prevailing institutional equipment for injections.

Hospitalization

I hate this metric as a result of the lag makes it misleading. However, right here’s bellwether New York Metropolis, information as of August 29:

Nonetheless getting worse. However how a lot worse?

Right here is CDC’s map…. “In Previous Week,” as a result of there’s no [family blogging date]:

2:00PM Water Cooler 8/29/2023 | bare capitalism

Orange = “substantial enhance” (greater than 20%). Now that it’s too late, possibly we’ll swing into a few of half-assed motion.

Positivity

Walgreens, August 28:

So, Walgreens is again within the recreation (and how on earth did that debacle occur? We breathlessly await the information protection). The proportion of positives is the best ever, although absolute numbers are nonetheless small relative to previous surges.

NOT UPDATED From CDC, August 7:

Lambert right here: That is the CDC’s “Traveler-Primarily based Genomic Surveillance” information, confirming the present surge, solely two weeks late. Certain can be helpful to know if there have been any BA.2.86 in these samples, although!

Deaths

NOT UPDATED Iowa COVID-19 Tracker, August 23:

Lambert right here: The WHO information is nugatory, so I changed it with the Iowa Covid Knowledge Tracker. Their technique: “These information have been sourced, by way of the API from the CDC: https://information.cdc.gov/NCHS/Circumstances-Contributing-to-COVID-19-Deaths-by-Stat/hk9y-quqm. This visualization updates on Wednesday evenings. Knowledge are provisional and are adjusted weekly by the CDC.” I can’t appear to get a pop-up that exhibits a complete of the three causes (prime proper). Readers?

Whole: 1,173,422 – 1,173,081 =  341 * 365 = 124,465 deaths per yr, immediately’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “residing with” Covid (fairly a bit greater than the minimizers would really like, although they’ll speak themselves into something.–> If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I could should resolve that is what the powers-that-be think about “mission achieved” for this explicit tranche of dying and illness). 

Lambert right here: First adverse quantity (!). Optimism?

Extra Deaths

The Economist, August 29:

Lambert right here:  Again to nearly day by day. Odd when it’s, odd when it stops. Primarily based on a machine-learning mannequin. (The CDC has an extra estimate too, however because it ran ceaselessly with a large typo within the Legend, I figured no person was actually it, so I bought rid it. )

Stats Watch

Employment Scenario: “United States Job Openings” [Trading Economics]. “The variety of job openings declined by 338,000 from the earlier month to eight.827 million in July 2023, marking the bottom stage since March 2021 and falling under the market consensus of 9.465 million. It additionally represented the third consecutive month of decline in job openings, indicating that the labor market is step by step slowing after months of unprecedented financial coverage tightening by the Fed.”

* * *

* * *

In the present day’s Concern & Greed Index: 50 Impartial (earlier shut: 48 Concern) [CNN]. One week in the past: 47 (Impartial). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Aug 29 at 1:57 PM ET. C’mon, Mr. Market! By hook or by crook!

Rapture Index: Closes unchanged [Rapture Ready]. Report Excessive, October 10, 2016: 189. Present: 185. (Keep in mind that bringing on the Rapture is good.) NOTE on #42 Plagues: “The coronavirus pandemic has maxed out this class.” Extra sincere than most!

The Jackpot

“The Doomsday Prepper’s Daughter” [Jessica Wildfire, OK Doomer]. A wild story from Kentucky, value a learn. However can readers affirm? Right here’s the ethical, spoiler eliminated: “Most survivalists don’t spend their time hoarding meals and weapons in underground bunkers. They deal with studying easy methods to develop meals, honing their expertise, and growing relationships. The wealthy do the other of all this. They assume they’ll conceal in metal containers from all of the chaos they created. [C. Wesley Morgan’s] story exhibits us how effectively that seems. The wealthy aren’t actually planning. They’re indulging in survivalist fantasies.”

Class Warfare

“COVID-19 and Training: An Up to date Survey of the Analysis” [Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland]. “Achievement ranges on a wide range of standardized checks fell through the pandemic…. Proof means that take a look at scores through the pandemic had been associated to the selection of educational mode. Relying on the precise statistical specification, Jack et al. (2022) discover that in-person education is related to a few 13 share level or 14 share level greater go price in arithmetic and an 8 share level or 9 share level greater go price in ELA than with digital education, whereas hybrid education is related to a few 7 share level or 8 share level greater go price in arithmetic and a 5 share level or 6 share level greater go price in ELA than with digital education. The consequences are largest within the decrease grades. Goldhaber et al. (2022) discover that distant instruction is related to widening achievement gaps, primarily as a result of the adverse results of distant instruction are bigger in magnitude at high-poverty faculties and to a lesser extent as a result of high-poverty faculties are extra possible to make use of distant instruction.”

NGOs gotta NGO:

Information of the Wired

“The World’s Oldest Cat Door Has Been Letting Working Cats Enter the Cathedral Because the 14th Century” 

Information of the Wired

I’m not but feeling wired immediately.

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Contact info for vegetation: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a test in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me photographs of vegetation. Greens are superb! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! If you’d like your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it initially of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From REH:

REH writes: “Buckwheat flowering within the excessive desert of Oregon.”

* * *

Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not lined by the annual NC fundraiser. So if you happen to see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see anyplace else, please don’t hesitate to precise your appreciation in tangible kind. Bear in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common optimistic suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. Once I get no donations for 5 or ten days I get frightened. Extra tangibly, a continuing trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I consider that trickle when setting fundraising objectives:

Right here is the display that can seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:

Should you hate PayPal, you possibly can electronic mail me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I gives you instructions on easy methods to ship a test. Thanks!

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