2:00PM Water Cooler 9/1/2023 | bare capitalism

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By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Chook Track of the Day

Mexican Whip-poor-will, Tucson; Mt. Lemmon; Basic Hitchcock Campground, Arizona, United States. “Two-hundred and one examples of the “Whip-poor-will” Name of BNA or, extra appropriately, the music of C. v. arizonae (primarily based on vary). High quality unchanged (1 – this seems to be the BEST instance we’ve got of music for this subspecies).” One other extremely lengthy whip-poor-will the place the old-school birder (1991) counted the calls!

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Politics

“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are actually a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

The Constitutional Order

Democrat framing, arising:

No, Jordan hasn’t been disqualified. It is a fundraising pitch. Count on extra if it really works out.

“The Fourteenth Modification Fantasy” [David Frum, The Atlantic]. “[Eminent jurists] argue that language within the Fourteenth Modification, adopted after the Civil Struggle, ought to debar the coup-plotting ex-president from showing on a poll for any workplace ever once more. Their studying is undisputed. Their conclusions are one other story. The mission to disqualify Trump from working for president is misguided and harmful. It received’t work. If it in some way may work, it could create issues worse even than Individuals already face. In a great world, Trump’s fellow Republicans would deal with this matter by repudiating his crimes and rejecting his candidacy for his or her presidential nomination. Failing that—and it actually appears as if that hope is failing—opponents of Trump should dig deep and beat him on the polls yet one more time. There isn’t any cheat code to win this sport.” • I hate to search out myself in settlement with Frum, however wants should. No matter what the textual content of the Structure states, giving election officers of one celebration to energy to take away candidates from the different celebration from the poll line primarily based on a judgement name is a change to the Constitutional order (albeit an unwritten portion of that order). The “eminent jurists” have pointed to the Rubicon and mentioned, “Yep! Let’s cross it. What may go flawed?”

“The Constitutional Case for Barring Trump from the Presidency” (interview) [J. Michael Luttig, The New Yorker]. Luttig explains the “self-executing” side of the Fourteenth Modification, giving the instance of the age requirement. The Structure requires {that a} President be 35 years outdated. Due to this fact, election officals should stirke their title from the poll. However: “right here is vastly extra judgment entailed in figuring out whether or not, for example, the previous President engaged in an rebellion or riot than in figuring out whether or not a candidate was thirty-five years outdated. That doesn’t relieve the obligated election official from making that dedication. The method for putting people on the poll varies from state to state. However, below our studying of the Fourteenth Modification, a person election official may make that call himself or herself. As a sensible matter, is that prone to happen? It will rely, I feel, on the workplace of the election official. If it had been the secretary of state who was charged with inserting people on the poll, then I consider that call by the duly appointed state official would suffice. However, in all occasions, whoever makes the qualification or the disqualification choice and whether or not they make it, that call might be instantly challenged, most likely by the previous President himself. And that problem would go straight into court docket—both state or federal—and it could finally make its method to the Supreme Courtroom of the US.” • Nonetheless, the purpose of entry is a disqualification by an election official on the state stage. Fits by people are frivolous.

The beginning of a ravishing friendship:


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“The Sweep and Pressure of Part Three” [William Baude and Michael Stokes Paulsen, University of Pennsylvania Law Review]. I extremely advocate this piece (and the following dialogue at NC, beginning right here). As a former English main and a fan of shut studying, I’m not averse to “originalism,” of which Baude and Paulsen present a magisterial instance, within the sense that understanding the regulation as a textual content should start with understanding the plain, public that means of the phrases used when the textual content was written. That’s how I learn Shakespeare, or Joyce, so why not the Structure? Simply so long as understanding doesn’t finish there! In any case, I’m working by means of it. One factor I discover is that there do appear to have been quite a number of rebellions and insurrections, not simply the Civil Struggle. To me, that is parallel to at least one lesson I drew from Mike Duncan’s Revolutions podcast (episode 1): There are quite a number of revolutions, too. Alert reader Pensions Man summarizes Baude and Paulsen as follows:]

The authors undergo an exhaustive textual and originalism evaluation of Part Three, and their Federalist Society leanings don’t deter them from reaching their conclusion that officers in each State who’re charged with figuring out candidate {qualifications} ought to conclude that Donald Trump is disqualified from being on ballots due to the oath he took on Inauguration Day 2017 and subsequently violated by means of his position within the rebellion that passed off on January 6, 2021.

Taking “rebellion” as learn (I have to do extra studying), extra on my persevering with protection of Part Three.

Capitol Seizure

“Proud Boys who led march to Capitol get two of the lengthiest sentences since Jan. 6 assault” [Politico]. A “march”? Not an rebellion? Or a coup? The entire article is sloppy like this, and doesn’t even give the statute below which they had been convicted. Nonetheless, this caught my eye: “‘It’s nearly seductive in how tangible a future act like this could possibly be,’ the prosecutor added. ‘” • That is fascinating, as a result of isn’t the actual concern “We’re going to make use of pressure to realize our political ends”? (Observe using “pressure” versus “violence.” Is a picket line “pressure”? How about loud chanting right into a megaphone? And so forth.) In that case, then, why the extra verbiage of “It simply takes slick propaganda and an setting the place you encourage folks to principally say, ‘It’s us towards them’”? Are we then to outlaw “divisiveness”? Mandate “unity”? Will we are saying that if the propaganda is “slick” sufficient, the attraction to “pressure” doesn’t have to be specific? Little question we will ask the Censorship Industrial Advanced to reply these questions. See below “Spook Nation.” 

2024

Time for the Countdown Clock!

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“The ultimate battle”:

I missed this in early August. Fascinating that Trump plans to forged out the fascists, communists, and Marxists. What’s he, a centrist? Then once more, he’s additionally going to forged out the warmongers and the deep state. He’s gonna be a busy man! (That is additionally fascinating in that it exhibits a method Trump could make use of footage from his trials; the implicit message is “Because of this I’m right here” (and, for some fraction of the voters, “I’m right here for you.” It’s a very good advert; remarkbly, Trump can nonetheless rent expert folks.) 

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“Why Nikki Haley Scares the Biden Marketing campaign” [Walter Shapiro, The New Republic]. “However Haley—for all her flaws and ideological contortions—serves as a potent reminder that Biden and the Democrats could possibly be susceptible to a Republican nominee who is just not a conspiracy-minded authoritarian with social views lifted from The Handmaid’s Story. Whereas Trump, Ron DeSantis, and Vivek Ramaswamy eagerly take right-wing positions which are simple to pillory, Haley is far tougher to pigeonhole. There are 4 notable points the place she has taken politically shrewd positions that might flummox Democrats.” Abortion (“making an attempt to take abortion off the desk for the 2024 election”), local weather (blame China and India), nationwide debt (blame each events), and Ukraine (not “wobbly”). Extra: “If the Republicans had been a rational political celebration, they might rapidly grasp that Haley’s coverage positions, in addition to her persona as an Indian American girl, make her most likely the strongest candidate towards Biden.” • I’d like to see a Haley/Harris debate. Harris may recast herself because the Indian… she as soon as forged herself as!

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“Cornel West defends third-party presidential bid” [NBC News]. “Requested why he’s working for the Inexperienced Celebration nomination as a substitute of difficult Biden within the Democratic Celebration main, West mentioned that ‘neither celebration is talking to the urgent wants of poor and dealing folks.’ So the two-party system itself is turning into in an obstacle for the flowering of American democracy,’ he mentioned. ‘We’ve bought too many fellow residents, 63%, residing paycheck-to-paycheck. … I need to say that it’s exhausting to view oneself as a spoiler when there’s rising rot within the system with two events linked to massive cash, Wall Road, Silicon Valley and militarism overseas.’” Right here’s the video:

The announcer may be very pleasant to West (who, one should admit, is sort of a charmer).

“Third-party ‘spoiler’ candidate Cornel West says Democratic Celebration is ‘past redemption’” [FOX]. “”I feel deep down in his coronary heart he is aware of that the Democratic Celebration has no elementary intention of talking to the wants of poor folks and dealing folks,” he continued. “They’re dominated by their company wing, they’re dominated by the militarists relating to overseas coverage. He and [Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez] and the others are going to be, in a sure sense, window dressing.” • This announceris additionally pleasant, however posts the next:

2:00PM Water Cooler 9/1/2023 | bare capitalism

Fairly a faucet dance on his taxes, oppo although it’s.

“Brother Bernie”:

Spook Nation

“Background to ‘Assessing Russian Actions and Intentions in Current US Elections””: The Analytic Course of and Cyber Incident Attribution” [Office of the Director of National Intelligence and Office of the Director of National Intelligence National Council*]. From 2017. • Simply terrible. C’mon, ODNI and ODNIC, let’s beat it collectively:

(A Russian affect meme, in case you haven’t guessed.) NOTE * I swear these are two separate establishments! They each have their seals on the duvet of the doc (indicated to me that they’re overstaffed, although little question name-plate contractors are doing very properly for themselves.)

“Assertion by Secretary Jeh Johnson on the Designation of Election Infrastructure as a Important Infrastructure Subsector” [United States Department of Homeland Security]. Additionally from 2017. “Now greater than ever, it can be crucial that we provide our help to state and native election officers within the cybersecurity of their methods. Election infrastructure is significant to our nationwide pursuits, and cyber assaults on this nation have gotten extra refined, and dangerous cyber actors – starting from nation states, cyber criminals and hacktivists – have gotten extra refined and harmful.” • In fact, with handmarked paper ballots, hand-counted in public, there’s no cybersecurity concern in any respect, since there’s no “cyber” to start with. Can’t have that.

Commentary by Mike Benz on the above two paperwork:

One may view the organs of state safety as having constructed a number of traces of protection towards the “flawed” choice on the poll in 2024: (1) counting the votes (and sustaining the voter rolls), per Jeh Johnson; (2) constraining the poll traces, per ODNI and ODNIC (see, e.g., Hunter Thompson’s laptop computer). As well as, (3) a brand new line of protection is being constructed to constrain the poll line with election officers, below the Fourteenth Modification idea. 

Democrats en Déshabillé

Affected person readers, plainly individuals are truly studying the back-dated publish! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are lots of updates. So I should do this. –lambert

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Celebration (“the Democrat Celebration is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated publish, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “dwell” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Celebration is, actually, a tough drawback. I do suppose the paragraph that follows is on level all the way in which again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Celebration is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Hear, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Celebration didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working components of the Celebration reinforce one another. Depart apart characterizing the relationships between components of the Celebration (ka-ching, however not solely) these components comprise a community — a Flex Web? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with property within the press and the intelligence neighborhood.

Observe, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is restricted by different courses; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

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#COVID19

“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Basic Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be happy to contact me on the tackle given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reviews); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3). 

Keep protected on the market!

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Maskstravaganza

“Masks Mandates Have Saved One Most cancers Heart Free From COVID-19. Others Have Lifted Masking Necessities Regardless of Affected person Considerations” [Cancer Therapy Advisor].  “Metropolis of Hope in Duarte, California, has maintained masking necessities, and this has prevented hospital-acquired COVID-19 there solely, in line with Vijay Trisal, MD, chief medical officer at Metropolis of Hope. ‘Our insurance policies enabled us to realize zero nosocomial infections, zero outbreaks,’ Dr Trisal mentioned. ‘In a most cancers hospital, that’s critically vital. Now we have no imminent plans to alter our present insurance policies.’” • Regardless of CDC’s greatest efforts to kill his sufferers!

Covid is Airborne

Readers, I’m repeating this due to my plea for a PDF. Thanks!

“Public Well being is a Job for Engineers” (abtract) [Mechanical Engineering]. The deck: “Physicians Can Remedy Illnesses, however Mechanical Engineers Construct Defenses To Ward Off Pathogens Defore They Infect.” The Summary: “As a substitute of ready to battle illnesses contained in the human physique, engineering can set up traces of protection additional out by both intercepting and neutralizing the pathogens earlier than they attain people or diluting them a lot that they’ll’t construct up an infective load. However there isn’t any quantity of me doing my particular person greatest that may overcome a failure of neighborhood coverage.’ The convention’s present Covid-19 insurance policies mirror these of its affiliate, Middlebury Faculty, which begins orientation for brand new college students subsequent week. Each entities say they comply with steerage from the U.S. Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention and depend on people to handle their very own testing and to voluntarily masks and isolate themselves when signs seem.” • Covid is, after all, asymptomatic, so CDC’s eugenicist insurance policies are working as designed, at the very least for Middlebury, In the meantime, IIRC Bob Wachter chivvied his spouse into attending a author’s convention, and he tagged alongside. They each bought Covid, and he or she bought Lengthy Covid. So there’s completely no excuse for the organizers. However PMC gotta PMC. From alert reader Beginner Socialist:

Covid anecdata from rural VT:  Outbreak at author’s convention stirs controversy when organizers proceed occasions on schedule.  https://thevpo.org/2023/08/28/youd-think-maybe-a-writers-conference-would-put-writers-first/#more-15684

If it’s in Middlebury VT it’s in all places.

Occasions are “on schedule” alright. Proper down the cr*pper.

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Case Knowledge

NOT UPDATED From BioBot wastewater knowledge, August 31:

Lambert right here: Comfortable reminiscences of tape-watching days! Resuming our upward climb, at a slower tempo.

Regional knowledge. As we will see, the nationwide flattening was because of the Midwest downward swoop:

Yesterday’s Water Cooler was stuffed with charts that confirmed why I used to be doubtful concerning the Midwest downward swoop, which now appears to be reversing itself, I don’t know whether or not because of the knowledge, backward revisions, or what.

Variants                 

From CDC, September 2:

Lambert right here: High of the leaderboard: EG.5 (“Eris“). No BA.2.86 right here, not even within the word, however see beneath at Positivity.

From CDC, August 19:

Lambert right here: Undecided what to make of this. I’m used to seeing a brand new variant take down the beforehand dominant variant. Right here it seems like we’ve got a “tag crew,” all working collectively to chop XBB.1.5 right down to measurement. I certain hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart relies upon, don’t all transfer on the inexperienced fields and pastures new (or have their entry to amenities lower by directors of unwell intent).

CDC: “As of Might 11, genomic surveillance knowledge might be reported biweekly, primarily based on the provision of constructive check specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice every week; semiweekly.” Seems like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.

Covid Emergency Room Visits

NOT UPDATED From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, August 26:

Lambert right here: I modified this ER chart to a Covid-only chart damaged down by age. Observe the highlighting.

NOTE “Charts and knowledge offered by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous yr, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not the whole pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “identical to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is acceptable for eachMR SUBLIMINAL I hate these folks a lot. Discover additionally that this chart exhibits, at the very least for its time interval, that Covid is not seasonal, despite the fact that CDC is making an attempt to get us to consider that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the prevailing institutional equipment for injections.

Hospitalization

NOT UPDATED Bellwether New York Metropolis, knowledge as of August 31:

Nonetheless getting worse. However how a lot worse? I hate this metric as a result of the lag makes it misleading.

NOT UPDATED Right here is CDC’s map…. “In Previous Week,” as a result of there’s no [family blogging date]:

Orange = “substantial improve” (greater than 20%). The cadence: “Maps, charts, and knowledge offered by CDC, updates Mondays and Thursdays by 8 p.m. ET.” So apparently, on Friday, I’ve to check the map right here with the one on the CDC web site to see if the replace has, actually, been carried out. Why are they making me suppose?

Lambert right here: This seems the identical to me, so both issues are the identical, or CDC’s promised Thursday replace “by 8 p.m. ET” didn’t occur (and it may not have; CDC has kind). Can’t they only time-stamp the [family blogging] web page, like regular human beings?

Positivity

NOT UPDATED Walgreens, August 28:

So, Walgreens is again within the sport (and how on earth did that debacle occur? We breathlessly await the information protection). The share of positives is the very best ever, although absolute numbers are nonetheless small relative to previous surges.

NOT UPDATED Cleveland Clinic, August 26:

Lambert right here: I do know that is simply Ohio, however the Cleveland Clinic is sweet*, and we’re starved for knowledge, so…. NOTE * Even when hospital an infection management is making an attempt to kill sufferers by eliminating common masking with N95s.

From CDC, August 14:

Lambert right here: That is the CDC’s “Traveler-Primarily based Genomic Surveillance” knowledge, confirming the present surge, solely two weeks late. Positive can be helpful to know if there have been any BA.2.86 in these samples, although! And now we all know:

I apologize, CDC. I missed this. Fifty lashes with a moist noodle for lambert.

Deaths

Iowa COVID-19 Tracker, August 30:

Lambert right here: The WHO knowledge is nugatory, so I changed it with the Iowa Covid Knowledge Tracker. Their methodology: “These knowledge have been sourced, through the API from the CDC: https://knowledge.cdc.gov/NCHS/Circumstances-Contributing-to-COVID-19-Deaths-by-Stat/hk9y-quqm. This visualization updates on Wednesday evenings. Knowledge are provisional and are adjusted weekly by the CDC.” I can’t appear to get a pop-up that exhibits a complete of the three causes (prime proper). Readers?

Complete: 1,173,655 – 1,173,5931,173,081 =  62. 62 * 365 = 22,630 deaths per yr, in the present day’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “residing with” Covid (fairly a bit increased than the minimizers would love, although they’ll discuss themselves into something.–> If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I may must resolve that is what the powers-that-be contemplate “mission achieved” for this explicit tranche of demise and illness). 

Extra Deaths

The Economist, September 1:

Lambert right here:  Again to nearly each day. Odd when it’s, odd when it stops. Primarily based on a machine-learning mannequin. (The CDC has an extra estimate too, however because it ran without end with a large typo within the Legend, I figured no one was actually taking a look at it, so I bought rid it. )

Stats Watch

Employment Scenario: “United States Unemployment Fee” [Trading Ecomomics]. “The unemployment fee within the US rose to three.8 p.c in August 2023 from 3.5 p.c in July, the very best since February 2022 and above market expectations of three.5 p.c. The variety of unemployed folks elevated by 514 thousand to six.355 million and employment ranges rose by 222 thousand to 161.484 million. The so-called U-6 unemployment fee, which additionally contains individuals who wish to work, however have given up looking and people working part-time as a result of they can not discover full-time employment, went as much as 7.1 p.c in August, the very best since Might 2022, from 6.7 p.c in July. The labor pressure participation fee elevated to 62.8 p.c, the very best since February 2020, from 62.6 p.c.”

Manufacturing: “United States ISM Buying Managers Index (PMI)” [Trading Economics]. “The ISM Manufacturing PMI climbed to 47.6 in August 2023 from the earlier month’s 46.4, barely exceeding the market consensus of 47.0. Nonetheless, this studying nonetheless indicated that financial exercise throughout the manufacturing sector had contracted for the tenth consecutive month. Whereas manufacturing ranges stabilized, the influx of recent orders skilled a extra speedy decline, and the tempo of job shedding confirmed indicators of easing.”:

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At the moment’s Worry & Greed Index: 55 Impartial (earlier shut: 53 Worry) [CNN]. One week in the past: 47 (Impartial). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Sep 1 at 2:13 PM ET. C’mon, Mr. Market! Come what may!

Information of the Wired

“Pornhub Wins Free Speech Problem to New Verification and Warning Legal guidelines” [Jonathan Turley, The Hill]. “There’s an fascinating free speech ruling in Texas in favor of the grownup leisure web site, Pornhub. Senior U.S. District Decide David A. Ezra of the U.S. District Courtroom for the Western District of Texas dominated {that a} Texas regulation requiring age-verification and warning labels concerning the alleged risks of porn contravenes the First Modification…. I do view this regulation as containing unconstitutional components. Nonetheless, that is prone to be simply the begin to an extended sequence of challenges and appeals. These legal guidelines have been enacted in different states, together with Louisiana, Mississippi, Virginia and Utah.” • Texas, naturally, since Purple States watch extra pr0n; the joys of the forbidden, little question.

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Contact info for crops: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a verify if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me photos of crops. Greens are superb! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you need your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it in the beginning of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From FM:

FM writes: “A neighborhood rose backyard.”

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Right here is the display screen that can seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:

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