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Affected person readers, I hope you loved your Labor Day. At current, this Water Cooler is a bit mild; Mercury being retrograde, each my computer systems have been having points. Having bought a keyboard for the laptop computer with nonfunctional “f”, “w”, and “r” keys, I put the one with the just-borked display into the store — forgetting that the present Water Cooler template was on it. So I needed to reconstruct a great deal, hopefully forgetting nothing. Extra quickly. –lambert
By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Chook Track of the Day
Widespread Chiffchaff (Widespread), Dorchester–Frome Whitfield, Dorset, England, United Kingdom. I searched on “candy summer season fowl” and that is what I bought.
Politics
“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are the truth is a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
The Constitutional Order
“Decide dismisses 14th Modification lawsuit in opposition to Trump, guidelines plaintiffs lack standing” [Palm Beach Post]. “In her swift dismissal of the case, Decide Robin Rosenberg, who was appointed to the bench by President Barack Obama, didn’t decide the 14th Modification’s applicability in Trump’s case. As a substitute, Rosenberg dominated that the plaintiffs, Boynton Seaside legal professional Lawrence Caplan and two others, lacked “standing” to convey the problem.” • Certainly, the person instances are frivolous. Baude and Paulsen argue that it’s state-level election officers who can “disqualify” Trump from the poll, primarily based on his putative involvement in a January 6 rebel. When a type of officers does that, they’ll be challenged in courtroom.
“Trump reps name push to disqualify him beneath 14th Modification ‘absurd’” [Axios]. “Trump despatched out fund-raising emails Sunday on potential litigation over the 14th Modification that railed in opposition to “traitorous ‘Republicans’” who could also be wanting into potential instances as he stares down 4 prison indictments, per NBC Information…. [The Trump campaign-allied MAGA Inc. super PAC] pointed to an Obama-appointed Florida choose’s dismissal final week of a problem to Trump’s candidacy beneath the 14th Modification.” • Disingenuous, as we see above.
“States look to see if 14th Modification can be utilized to disqualify Trump — nevertheless it has dangers” [Axios]. “Advocacy group Free Speech For Individuals, despatched letters to election officers in Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and New Mexico on Wednesday, asking them to make use of their authority to exclude Trump from the ballots…. Particular counsel Jack Smith didn’t cost Trump with rebel or rise up within the election fraud case. However the provision doesn’t point out a necessity for a prison indictment or conviction.” However rebel is against the law. If Smith didn’t cost Trump with it, that’s prima facie proof Trump didn’t commit it. Extra: “[Sheralynn] Ifill, who was lately named the inaugural chair of the 14th Modification Middle for Regulation & Democracy at Howard Regulation Faculty, informed Axios she has “little question” that Part 3 of the 14th Modification might be utilized to Trump. ‘I’m satisfied that Part 3 was designed to guard our democracy in opposition to exactly the risk that the previous President constitutes to our republic,’ she stated.” Little question. Democrats began framing the riot of January 6 as “rebel” immediately. One way or the other, they confused this:
with this:
“Is Trump blocked from the 2024 poll? The Structure might hold him out of the working” [Arizona Republic]. “NBC Information did a narrative lately describing how secretaries of state all through the nation are attempting to determine the way to take care of such challenges. Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes figured prominently in that story, saying partly, ‘Now we have to have a remaining certification of eligible candidates (for the first poll) by Dec. 14 for Arizona’s presidential desire election. And since it will in the end find yourself in courtroom, we’re taking this very significantly…. Proper now, rulings by the Arizona Supreme Court docket point out Trump can’t be excluded from the poll right here. However that ruling might not be the ultimate phrase. Or as Fontes stated in an interview with The Gaggle, the politics podcast of The Arizona Republic and azcentral.com, ‘Can the Arizona Supreme Court docket be overturned? If anyone brings a lawsuit? Nicely, any legislation might be overturned in a judicial motion. Now, I’m not inviting somebody to sue me, though it in all probability will find yourself occurring.’” • Fontes is a Democrat, because it occurs.
* * * “The Sweep and Pressure of Part Three” [William Baude and Michael Stokes Paulsen, University of Pennsylvania Law Review]. I extremely advocate this piece (and the following dialogue at NC, beginning right here). As a former English main and a fan of shut studying, I’m not averse to “originalism,” of which Baude and Paulsen present a magisterial instance, within the sense that understanding the legislation as a textual content should start with understanding the plain, public which means of the phrases used when the textual content was written. That’s how I learn Shakespeare, or Joyce, so why not the Structure? Simply so long as understanding doesn’t finish there! In any case, I’m working via it. One factor I discover is that there do appear to have been slightly a whole lot of rebellions and insurrections, not simply the Civil Warfare. To me, that is parallel to at least one lesson I drew from Mike Duncan’s Revolutions podcast (episode 1): There are slightly a whole lot of revolutions, too. Alert reader Pensions Man summarizes Baude and Paulsen as follows:
The authors undergo an exhaustive textual and originalism evaluation of Part Three, and their Federalist Society leanings don’t deter them from reaching their conclusion that officers in each State who’re charged with figuring out candidate {qualifications} ought to conclude that Donald Trump is disqualified from being on ballots due to the oath he took on Inauguration Day 2017 and subsequently violated via his position within the rebel that befell on January 6, 2021.
Taking “rebel” as learn (I have to do extra studying), this has been extra of my persevering with protection of Part Three.
2024
Time for the Countdown Clock!
* * * “Biographer says it wouldn’t be ‘complete shock’ if Biden drops out of 2024 race” [Guardian]. “Franklin Foer, whose e book The Final Politician: Inside Joe Biden’s White Home and the Battle for America’s Future is printed this week, informed NBC’s Meet the Press on Sunday that ‘it doesn’t take Bob Woodward to know that Joe Biden is previous’, referring the Watergate reporter who, like Biden, is 80. ‘I’m not a gerontologist, and I can’t predict how the subsequent couple years will age Joe Biden,’ Foer added. Requested if Biden might drop out of his re-election bid, Foer stated: ‘It might be a shock to me, nevertheless it wouldn’t be a complete shock to me.’ … Within the e book, Foer writes that Biden’s ‘superior years have been a hindrance, depriving him of the vitality to forged a strong public presence or the flexibility to simply conjure a reputation. … It was placing that he took so few morning conferences or presided over so few public occasions earlier than 10am. His public persona mirrored bodily decline and time’s dulling of psychological schools that no tablet or train regime can resist.” • “Power within the government” isn’t essentially good. I imply, I don’t need Biden to get up at 8:00am, filled with p*ss and vinegar, and press the button.
“Most Professional-Labor President in Historical past? Joe Biden’s Not There But” [The Nation]. ” Joe Biden is extra outspoken than any current president with regards to supporting organized labor, and he has a file that attests to his sincerity.” Proper! Have a look at the railroad unions! Oh, wait…. Extra: “By any measure, Biden’s labor file at this level is best than that of any current Democratic or Republican presidents…. When you’re on the lookout for a measure of a “most pro-union president,” you received’t discover a higher one than a dramatic improve in union membership. FDR nailed it. And Ike did fairly effectively. Biden, by comparability, has not come shut. In response to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the general union membership fee fell from a dismal 10.3 %, when Biden took workplace in 2021, to an much more dismal 10.1 % in 2022…. That doesn’t imply, nevertheless, that Biden ought to quit on claiming the “most-pro-union president” title. Fairly the alternative. What he ought to do is battle for the title. The 2024 election can and must be a referendum on labor rights.” • Dream on. Biden can’t. The Democrat base hates the working class; see Thomas Frank, Pay attention, Liberal! That’s why Biden’s reforms are restricted to swapping new regulators into the regulatory state. Not dangerous, however not practically adequate.
Obama Legacy
Nice materials from Carlos Mucha (“Beowulf”). Sorry in regards to the width and the size, however Twitter actually isn’t appropriate for, effectively, running a blog:
And:
After which got here election 2010….
Democrats en Déshabillé
Affected person readers, evidently individuals are really studying the back-dated publish! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are various updates. So I should try this. –lambert
I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Social gathering (“the Democrat Social gathering is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated publish, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “reside” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Social gathering is, the truth is, a tough downside. I do assume the paragraph that follows is on level all the way in which again to 2016, if not earlier than:
The Democrat Social gathering is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Pay attention, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Social gathering didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working elements of the Social gathering reinforce one another. Depart apart characterizing the relationships between components of the Social gathering (ka-ching, however not completely) these components comprise a community — a Flex Web? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with property within the press and the intelligence group.
Word, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is proscribed by different lessons; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.
* * *
Realignment and Legitimacy
“Identification politics is a recreation the left can’t win” [Fredrik deBoer, Boston Globe]. “Most individuals need to come collectively throughout distinction for the nice of all, slightly than to be divided into smaller and smaller slices primarily based on id classes they don’t management. Over the previous a number of years, American progressives have begun to reinstitute a pernicious type of segregation. Generally this segregation is literal, as after they type these “affinity teams” in school or work, the place individuals are separated out into teams of Black or Hispanic or Asian or homosexual or trans or disabled or different. This segregation (which is the one trustworthy time period for it) is supposed to make the members of those teams snug. However the very idea is inimical to solidarity, essentially the most fundamental means and finish of left politics. Solidarity requires that we see frequent humanity, that we acknowledge shared battle, that we take a look at the struggling of one other and picture ourselves of their place and are thus moved to work for higher for them. Nonetheless noble the intent of intersectional politics could also be, by fixating relentlessly on the necessity to stress distinction, those that follow this are undermining the capability for the one instrument which may relieve these very oppressions they decry: individuals energy, the formation of a mass motion. Because the American sociologist and left activist Todd Gitlin as soon as wrote, ‘if there isn’t any individuals, solely peoples, there isn’t any left.’” • However each single a type of “smaller and smaller slices” has an NGO backing it, and in lots of instances, a squillionaire backing the NGO (which means that the so-called “hierarchy of struggling” is delusional; the true hierarchy is, effectively, the almighty greenback).
“Is the umbrella time period ‘Asian American’ even correct anymore?” [NBC News]. • It by no means was. It’s telling that NBC raises the query with an id class that has comparatively little political clout.
* * *
#COVID19
“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Common Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the tackle given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater experiences); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).
Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tricks to useful readers: anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3).
Keep secure on the market!
Covid is Airborne
And never simply Covid:
“Airborne transmission of human-isolated avian H3N8 influenza virus between ferrets” (summary solely) [Cell]. “H3N8 viruses are widespread in rooster flocks; nevertheless, the zoonotic options of H3N8 viruses are poorly understood. Right here, we reveal that H3N8 viruses have been capable of infect and replicate effectively in organotypic regular human bronchial epithelial (NHBE) cells and lung epithelial (Calu-3) cells. Human isolates of H3N8 virus have been extra virulent and triggered extreme pathology in mice and ferrets, relative to rooster isolates. Importantly, H3N8 virus remoted from a affected person with extreme pneumonia was transmissible between ferrets via respiratory droplets; it had acquired human-receptor-binding desire and amino acid substitution PB2-E627K vital for airborne transmission. Human populations, even when vaccinated in opposition to human H3N2 virus, seem immunologically naive to rising mammalian-adapted H3N8 AIVs and could possibly be weak to an infection at epidemic or pandemic proportion.” • Though…. “Droplets”? What, once more?
Variants
“SARS-CoV-2 Eris variant spreads sooner and dodges immunity” [News Medical Life Sciences]. “General, the research findings confirmed that EG.5.1 had an analogous proliferative potential to XBB.1.5 in naïve wild-type hamsters; nevertheless, its transmissibility was considerably better. Moreover, the viral tropism of the EG.5.1 variant differed from the viral tropism of the XBB.1.5 variant following transmission through air for the reason that EG.5.1 variant was present in specimens obtained from the nasal and pulmonary tissues of contaminated hamsters. EG.5.1 immune evasiveness was modestly however significantly better than the XBB.1.5 variant and the XBB.1.9.2 variant. Thus, the altered antigenicity and better transmissibility of the EG.5.1 variant could drive its increased predominance in comparison with the XBB.1.5 variant amongst people.”
“One thing Terrible”
Lambert right here: I’m getting the sensation that the “One thing Terrible” is perhaps a sawtooth sample — variant after variant — that averages out to a completely excessive plateau. A lot of exceptionally nasty sequelae, most definitely deriving from immune dysregulation (says this layperson). To which we’d add mind harm, together with character modifications therefrom.
* * *
Case Knowledge
From BioBot wastewater knowledge, September 5:
Again to a gradual upward climb.
Regional knowledge:
The Midwest now upward as effectively. I’m unsure what the downward swoop was all about. Curiously, the upswing begins earlier than July 4, which neither accelerates nor retards it.
Variants
NOT UPDATED From CDC, September 2:
Lambert right here: High of the leaderboard: EG.5 (“Eris“). No BA.2.86 right here, not even within the observe, however see beneath at Positivity.
CDC: “As of Could 11, genomic surveillance knowledge can be reported biweekly, primarily based on the supply of constructive take a look at specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice per week; semiweekly.” Appears to be like like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.
Covid Emergency Room Visits
NOT UPDATED From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, August 26:
Lambert right here: I modified this ER chart to a Covid-only chart damaged down by age. Word the highlighting.
NOTE “Charts and knowledge supplied by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous yr, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not your complete pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “identical to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is acceptable for eachMR SUBLIMINAL I hate these individuals a lot. Discover additionally that this chart exhibits, at the very least for its time interval, that Covid is not seasonal, regardless that CDC is making an attempt to get us to imagine that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the present institutional equipment for injections.
Hospitalization
Bellwether New York Metropolis, knowledge as of September 2:
Leveling out? I hate this metric as a result of the lag makes it misleading.
Right here’s a special CDC visualization on hospitalization, nationwide, not by state, however with a date, at the very least:
At the very least now we now that hospitalization tracks positivity, which is good. Even when we don’t know what number of instances there are.
Positivity
From Walgreens, September 4:
-2.7% Massive drop, in all probability as a consequence of Labor Day journey, although absolutely the numbers are nonetheless very small relative to June 2022, say. Curiously, these don’t correlate with the regional figures for wastewater. (It might be attention-grabbing to survey this inhabitants typically; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and massive peer strain, went and bought examined anyhow.)
NOT UPDATED From CDC, traveler’s knowledge, August 14:
Lambert right here: That is the CDC’s “Traveler-Primarily based Genomic Surveillance” knowledge. And the variant knowledge:
Deaths
Iowa COVID-19 Tracker, August 30:
Lambert right here: The WHO knowledge is nugatory, so I changed it with the Iowa Covid Knowledge Tracker. Their methodology: “These knowledge have been sourced, through the API from the CDC: https://knowledge.cdc.gov/NCHS/Circumstances-Contributing-to-COVID-19-Deaths-by-Stat/hk9y-quqm. This visualization updates on Wednesday evenings. Knowledge are provisional and are adjusted weekly by the CDC.” I can’t appear to get a pop-up that exhibits a complete of the three causes (high proper). Readers?,,
Complete: 1,174,149 – 1,173,655 = 494 (494 * 365 = 180,310 deaths per yr, at present’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “residing with” Covid (fairly a bit increased than the minimizers would really like, although they’ll speak themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I may should determine that is what the powers-that-be think about “mission completed” for this explicit tranche of loss of life and illness).
Lambert right here: Massive as a result of over a weekend.
Extra Deaths
The Economist, September 3:
Lambert right here: That is now being up to date every day. Odd. Primarily based on a machine-learning mannequin. (The CDC has an extra estimate too, however because it ran without end with an enormous typo within the Legend, I figured no person was actually taking a look at it, so I bought rid it. )
Stats Watch
Manufacturing: “United States Manufacturing facility Orders” [Trading Economics]. “New orders for manufactured items within the US decreased by 2.1% from the earlier month to $579.4 million in July of 2023, lower than market expectations of a 2.5 % fall and after 4 consecutive months of will increase. It in contrast with an upwardly revised 2.3 % rise in June. Demand for transportation gear, additionally down following 4 consecutive month-to-month will increase, drove the lower.”
Provide Chain: “United States LMI Logistics Managers Index Present” [Trading Economics]. “The Logistics Supervisor’s Index in the USA elevated to 51.2 in August 2023, the best since February, and pointing to the primary progress within the logistics sector in 4 months.”
In the present day’s Worry & Greed Index: 60 Greed (earlier shut: 55 Impartial) [CNN]. One week in the past: 50 (Impartial). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Sep 5 at 1:51 PM ET. Mr. Market had a great Labor Day?
Rapture Index: Closes unchanged [Rapture Ready]. Report Excessive, October 10, 2016: 189. Present: 185. (Do not forget that bringing on the Rapture is good.) NOTE on #42 Plagues: “The coronavirus pandemic has maxed out this class.” Extra trustworthy than most!
Information of the Wired
“Studying for Pleasure Helps Youngsters’ Mind Improvement” [Scientific American]. “[U]ntil enough measures are taken to scale back inequality and enhance outcomes, our new research, printed in Psychological Medication, exhibits one low-cost exercise that will at the very least counteract among the destructive results of poverty on the mind: studying for pleasure… Being rich has additionally been linked with having extra gray matter (tissue within the outer layers of the mind) within the frontal and temporal areas (located simply behind the ears) of the mind. And we all know that these areas assist the event of cognitive abilities. The affiliation between wealth and cognition is biggest in essentially the most economically deprived households. Amongst youngsters from decrease earnings households, small variations in earnings are related to comparatively giant variations in [surface area. Among children from higher income families, similar income increments are associated with smaller differences in surface area.” • Hmm.
“Behind the scenes: DPReview moves to a new studio” [DP Preview]. “When you’ve adopted the trajectory of DPReview over the previous few months, you understand that 2023 has been a wild experience. First, Amazon determined to shut the positioning. Then, we operated in a surreal limbo world for a time, publishing previous our introduced closure date as if nothing had occurred. (Sure, that was bizarre for us too.) Lastly, on June twentieth, Amazon introduced the positioning’s sale to Gear Patrol. Not solely did DPReview discover a strategy to reside on, however we couldn’t have been extra excited to affix an organization that so intently aligns with our values and mission. So, right here we’re.” • Crapification averted?!
Contact info for crops: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a verify if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me photographs of crops. Greens are advantageous! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! In order for you your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it firstly of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From Tom:
Tom writes: “Right here’s ghostly factor that seems within the forest seemingly from at some point to the subsequent. Very odd wanting. I suppose it’s a plant nevertheless it virtually seems like bizarre fungus. Net search by picture got here up with one thing that appears prefer it known as monotropastrum humile however Ask Jimbo! (Wikipedia) stated that’s Asian, not American. Maybe Monotropa uniflora? Idk. If that’s what it’s then (in keeping with one Ask Jimbo! web page and contradicted on one other) it’s a myco-heterotrophy which is a plant fungus symbiosis. What do others learn about it?
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