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Affected person readers, perhaps there actually is one thing to this Mercury-in-retrograde woo woo. The store changed my borked display with a display that was itself borked. So I wait one other day. And my espresso machine failed [snarl]. –lambert
By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Chicken Tune of the Day
Mountain Chiffchaff (Caucasian) Ikizdere; Sivri Kaya, Rize, Türkiye. “One chicken trapped and photographed; singing from 50cm excessive bush of beech scrub (Fagus) close to snow limiit.” Undecided what the white noise is; I’m picturing a mountain waterfall.
Politics
“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in truth a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
The Constitutional Order
“Supreme Court docket to Resolve Whether or not to Kick Trump Off Poll” [Newsweek]. “The authorized debate about whether or not or not former President Donald Trump needs to be allowed to seem on the 2024 poll has made its method earlier than the Supreme Court docket. The court docket distributed John Castro v. Donald Trump to the justices for convention on Wednesday forward of the upcoming time period, which can start on October 2. Convention is to happen on September 26 and the case is anticipated to be determined on or earlier than October 9. Castro, a tax lawyer operating for the Republican nomination subsequent yr, despatched his petition to the Supreme Court docket final month, asking the justices to reply whether or not political candidates can problem the eligibility of one other candidate of the identical occasion operating for a similar nomination ‘primarily based on a political aggressive harm within the kind a diminution of votes.’” Sounds novel. Extra: “The lawsuit is searching for to argue that Trump shouldn’t be allowed to run for the White Home primarily based on part three of the 14th Modification… Former federal prosecutor Neama Rahmani beforehand instructed Newsweek that it’s unlikely for the justices to aspect with Castro since Trump has but to be charged or convicted of revolt and rise up. ‘A conviction isn’t required underneath the plain language of the Structure, but it surely’s telling that even these prosecuting Trump don’t consider that there’s sufficient proof to convict him or revolt or sedition,’ Rahmani stated.” The headline is a bit misleading, because it assumes Castro already has standing. Right here is his concept: “Castro, nonetheless, argues that his case would have sufficient standing [whatever that means] as a result of since he’s additionally operating for the Republican nomination.” • The idea that one candiate can inflict a “aggressive harm” on one other looks like a Pandora’s field, to me; one which the Court docket would want superb purpose to open. If I had been a Supreme Court docket justice, I’d deep six Castro and look forward to a clear case introduced in opposition to an election official appearing on Baude and Paulen’s concept (under). And perhaps stuff Baude and Paulen again of their casket and nail the lid shut, in order that they don’t preserve popping up by way of 2024.
“It’s time for Chris Christie to sue Donald Trump” [Hayes Brown, MSNBC]. Identical concept as above. From August 26: “Steven Calabresi, a regulation professor at Northwestern and Yale and co-founder of The Federalist Society, has prompt {that a} candidate, particularly Christie, take the lead: ‘,’ Calabresi wrote this month in The Volokh Conspiracy, a libertarian-leaning authorized weblog. ‘They draw from some related voters. Christie ought to sue, if essential, to get Trump’s title off the poll.’ I’d broaden Calabresi’s name for Christie to sue to incorporate Hutchinson as effectively, particularly since he appears to be effectively conscious of the arguments in favor of Trump’s disqualification. From there, the case is prone to rocket as much as the Supreme Court docket….” • Because it did, so good name (which says nothing on the deserves).
“Does Part 3 of the Fourteenth Modification Disqualify Trump?” [Cato]. “[N]o one ought to assume that simply because Baude and Paulsen have made a strong mental case for his or her originalist studying, that the Supreme Court docket will declare itself satisfied and disqualify Trump. Justice Antonin Scalia memorably described himself as a ‘faint‐hearted originalist,’ which captures one thing vital in regards to the considering of virtually each Justice—if overruling a wrongly determined previous case threatens to disrupt settled expectations to the purpose of spreading chaos and grief by way of society, most of them will chorus. Stare decisis, and a common choice for continuity in regulation, nonetheless issues.”
“Might the 14th Modification preserve Trump off the poll in 2024?” [WaPo]. That is truly an excellent wrap-up. “Within the historically first-in-the-nation major state of New Hampshire, Secretary of State David Scanlan (R) has requested the state’s lawyer common to study the problem and its potential applicability within the upcoming presidential election…. Within the battleground state of Michigan, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) not too long ago stated “there are legitimate authorized arguments being made” for retaining the previous president off the poll and that it’s one thing she is discussing with election officers in different states. In a current interview with MSNBC, she stated states will ‘possible must act in live performance, if we act in any respect’ concerning the constitutional challenges and predicted the problem will in the end be settled in courts…. In Arizona, Secretary of State Adrian Fontes (D) has stated that he doesn’t have the authority to bar Trump from the poll, however that the query about Trump’s eligibility isn’t settled. Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger has stated when requested about Trump and the 14th Modification that voters ‘deserve the precise to resolve elections.’” • Attention-grabbing that Benson needs to affix arms with different Democrats to allow them to soar off the cliff collectively. I ponder if anyone is orchestrating that effort.
“Is the President an ‘Officer of the US’ for Functions of Part 3 of the Fourteenth Modification?” [Josh Blackman & Seth Barrett Tillman, NYU Journal of Law & Liberty]. Pupil edited; from 2021 (!). Part 3 says that “No particular person shall… maintain any workplace, civil or navy, underneath the US, who who, having beforehand taken an oath,
as a member of Congress, or ,or as a member of any state legislature,or as an govt or judicial officer of any state,to help the Structure of the US, shall have engaged in revolt….” I crossed out the components not related to Trump. Elevating the query: Is the President an “an officer of the US”? The authors argue no: “Half I’ll contend that the phrases ‘officer of the US’ and ‘workplace . . . underneath the US’ in Part 3 seek advice from totally different classes of positions. Half II will analyze the phrase ‘officer of the US,’ which is used within the Structure of 1788 and in Part 3 of the Fourteenth Modification. Half III will present that the that means of the phrase ‘officer of the US’ didn’t drift from 1788 by way of 1868. In each eras, there may be substantial proof that the President was not thought of an ‘officer of the US.’ Half IV will recount longstanding Govt Department opinions, which affirmed that elected officers just like the President aren’t ‘officers of the US.’ Half V will reply to current arguments suggesting that the President is an ‘officer of the US’ for functions of Part 3. Half VI will chart how the courts, and never Congress, will possible have the ultimate say about whether or not President Trump is topic to Part 3 of the Fourteenth Modification.” • Completely simply throwing this one on the market. Maybe somebody with extra authorized experience than I’ve can remark.* * * “The Sweep and Pressure of Part Three” [William Baude and Michael Stokes Paulsen, University of Pennsylvania Law Review]. I extremely suggest this piece (and the following dialogue at NC, beginning right here). As a former English main and a fan of shut studying, I’m not averse to “originalism,” of which Baude and Paulsen present a magisterial instance, within the sense that understanding the regulation as a textual content should start with understanding the plain, public that means of the phrases used when the textual content was written. That’s how I learn Shakespeare, or Joyce, so why not the Structure? Simply so long as understanding doesn’t finish there! In any case, I’m working by way of it. One factor I discover is that there do appear to have been slightly loads of rebellions and insurrections, not simply the Civil Conflict. To me, that is parallel to 1 lesson I drew from Mike Duncan’s Revolutions podcast (episode 1): There are slightly loads of revolutions, too. Alert reader Pensions Man summarizes Baude and Paulsen as follows:
The authors undergo an exhaustive textual and originalism evaluation of Part Three, and their Federalist Society leanings don’t deter them from reaching their conclusion that officers in each State who’re charged with figuring out candidate {qualifications} ought to conclude that Donald Trump is disqualified from being on ballots due to the oath he took on Inauguration Day 2017 and subsequently violated by way of his position within the revolt that passed off on January 6, 2021.
Taking “revolt” as learn (I must do extra studying), this has been extra of my persevering with protection of Part Three.
Biden Administration
“Because of Biden, the Conflict Get together is again” [Responsible Statecraft]. “As Robert Kagan, Nuland’s husband and main neo-conservative pundit, places it, ‘Superpowers don’t get to retire.’ Kagan asserts baldly what this crew believes: ‘The time has come to inform People that there is no such thing as a escape from world accountability…the duty of sustaining a world order is endless and fraught with prices however preferable to the choice.’ In actuality, the time has come for a brutally sincere evaluation of the rising prices and growing perils that come from the militarization of our overseas coverage and the relentless effort to police the world. Because the Quincy Institute’s Andrew Bachevich places it, ‘Our precise predicament derives from the lower than sincere declare that historical past obliges the US to pursue a coverage of militarized hegemony till the top of time. Options do exist.’ Sadly the Biden administration seems dedicated to the warfare occasion’s failed playbook of the previous, and the rising prices of a worldwide coverage we neither want nor can afford.”
2024
Time for the Countdown Clock!
* * * “Fani Willis lays out prison case in opposition to false electors” [Politico]. Or, as we are saying, “contingent electors” (not less than in orginal expression). Numerous element, price studying in full. “On Dec. 14, 2020, the day presidential electors throughout the nation had been required to satisfy and solid their votes, thereby affirming Joe Biden’s victory, dozens of Trump allies in seven states the place Biden was the licensed winner convened their very own mock elector ceremonies, signing petitions claiming to be reliable presidential electors and subsequently delivering them to Congress…. Shawn Nonetheless, Cathleen Latham and David Shafer — the previous chairman of the Georgia Republican Get together — had been among the many Trump allies who signed the false paperwork in Georgia, and so they’ve been charged as a part of a sprawling racketeering conspiracy geared toward subverting Georgia’s 2020 election. They’re additionally charged with false statements, forgery and different associated costs. In current court docket filings, all three have argued that they believed they had been doing Trump’s bidding once they signed the false paperwork, pointing to the truth that Trump despatched a marketing campaign lawyer to their Dec. 14 assembly who urged them to signal the paperwork to maintain Trump’s election hopes alive. That lawyer, Ray Smith, can also be charged within the alleged conspiracy. The false Georgia electors are trying to “take away” their prison circumstances to federal court docket, the place they might try and argue that they’re immune from the state costs. On the coronary heart of their argument is the declare that they acted at Trump’s behest — and, subsequently, grew to become appendages of the federal authorities. Federal regulation permits these appearing as federal ‘officers’ to take away their circumstances to federal court docket in the event that they’re charged with actions that relate to their official tasks.”
“Might a New Georgia Legislation Defeat Fani Willis Earlier than She Tries Trump?” [New York Sun]. “Georgia’s regulation launched on July 1 and can start to subject complaints on October 1, simply months earlier than President Trump and 18 different defendants will stand trial at a Fulton County courthouse…. The push to oust Ms. Willis, who’s prosecuting Mr. Trump and 18 others for alleged efforts in Georgia to overturn the 2020 election, is rising as a sidebar to her stewardship of the case, nonetheless in its early days. Governor Kemp at a press convention known as the impeachment of Ms. Willis ‘political theater that solely inflames the feelings of the second.’ The governor added {that a} particular session dedicated to eradicating Ms. Wilis “would ignore present Georgia regulation and immediately intrude with the proceedings of a separate however equal department of presidency.” He added that the ‘backside line is that within the state of Georgia, so long as I’m governor, we’re going to observe the regulation and the Structure, no matter who[m] it helps or harms politically.’ In Might on the Chatham County Sheriff’s Workplace, although, Mr. Kemp signed into regulation a measure known as S.B. 92. The regulation creates an eight-member ‘Prosecuting Attorneys Oversight Fee.’… Three of these members are designated as ‘investigators,’ and three are assigned to function a ‘listening to panel.’ The fee possesses the ‘energy to self-discipline, take away, and trigger involuntary retirement of appointed or elected district attorneys or solicitors-general.’ One state lawmaker, Steven Dixon, has already promised to file a grievance in opposition to Ms. Willis for her indictment of Mr. Trump…. The committee members are to be appointed by the governor, the lieutenant governor, and the speaker of Georgia’s Home of Representatives, all Republicans. All three of those that have been appointed to date have been district attorneys, like Ms. Willis, suggesting that they may very well be empathetic towards her train of discretion.” • Shark-infested waters. Together with Willis herself, I’d add.
“Deer chief?” (letter to the editor) [Valley News]. “Once I’m driving, and a deer passes in entrance of my automotive, I don’t have a look at the deer; I look in course it got here from, to see if there are different deer following behind it. Former President Trump has been indicted on a number of fronts with extra to return. The actual query isn’t whether or not he’s convicted; it’s whether or not there may be sufficient time earlier than the election in 2024 to search out him responsible of against the law that rises to the extent of a offense in opposition to the Structure, which gained’t enable him to run. I might argue that there isn’t.” • I just like the metaphor. Even when I’m unsure I perceive it.
* * * “Joe Biden’s ‘Iron Grip’ on His Get together” [Wall Street Journal]. “No matter could also be stated in regards to the GOP’s solicitous perspective to Mr. Trump through the years of his presidency, it compares favorably with the left’s omertà within the face of President Biden’s apparent psychological infirmity, incompetence and what seems to be a historical past of self-enrichment. Mr. Trump’s election occasioned some unlovely shifting of rules on the precise, but it surely additionally precipitated fierce debate. Some Republicans refused to search out fault with the brand new president for something. Others made their peace along with his election however remained vital when his conduct and selections merited it. A number of made it their mission to destroy him. Proper-oriented coverage organizations and conservative publications endured rancorous public schisms. Conservative spiritual leaders, together with evangelical Christians, fell out with one another. That’s a couple of can say for the Democratic Get together and the mainstream left of the 2020s.” Not unfair. Extra: “You might need anticipated a reputable Democrat, perhaps a retired navy officer, to problem Mr. Biden in a major. However no; the occasion rearranged its conventional major schedule to start with South Carolina and so make any major problem almost inconceivable.” • They did. Worse, placing South Carolina first was an apparent payoff to James Clyburn, avatar of the Black Misleadership Class, and the South Carolina Democrats for serving to to nobble Sanders, pre-Tremendous Tuesday, in 2020.
* * * Harris on the varied Trump issues:
Vice President Kamala Harris stated that these liable for the trouble to overturn the outcomes of the 2020 presidential election and the following violence on Jan. 6 should be held accountable — even when meaning Donald Trump. pic.twitter.com/tY7tyerl1x
— The Related Press (@AP) September 6, 2023
And from the identical interview:
“Harris says she’s able to step into position of president if Biden is unwell: ‘Might need to take over’” [FOX]. “‘I see him day by day,’ Harris stated of Biden. ‘A considerable period of time we spend collectively is within the Oval Workplace, the place I see how his capability to grasp points and weave by way of advanced points in a method that nobody else can to make sensible and vital selections on behalf of the American individuals have performed out.’” • One doesn’t “weave by way of” advanced points, like a operating again weaving by way of the protection; one weaves collectively. And naturally “sensible.” We love our sensible. “You don’t want that masks, Joe. Let see your smile!”
* * * “The Most Necessary Elections of 2023 Will Check Purple-State Voters—and Glenn Youngkin’s Clout” [Wall Street Journal]. “Virginia voters’ selections this November will give essential clues in regards to the course of the nationwide elections subsequent November, and in regards to the political way forward for a rising Republican star: Gov. Glenn Youngkin. Management of the state legislature is at stake, with all 140 seats in each chambers up for grabs. Democrats maintain a slim majority within the Senate, Republicans have an edge within the Home. Youngkin, whereas not on the poll, is pushing exhausting for a GOP trifecta so he can go a 15-week abortion restrict and different conservative priorities—and so he can burnish his popularity as a Republican who can win in swing territory after his 2021 victory put him on the nationwide map. If the Nov. 7 elections go effectively for his occasion, Youngkin may make a late entry into the 2024 presidential race—a prospect he hasn’t dominated out and a few nationwide Republicans have pined for privately. GOP major polling and a few early poll deadlines counsel such a bid would have little likelihood of success. Or Youngkin, 56 years previous, may attempt to proceed constructing legislative and political victories with a watch to operating for president in 2028. Virginia governors can’t serve consecutive four-year phrases.”
* * *
Obama Legacy
Democrats en Déshabillé
Affected person readers, evidently persons are truly studying the back-dated submit! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are a lot of updates. So I must do this. –lambert
I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Get together (“the Democrat Get together is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated submit, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “reside” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Get together is, in truth, a tough downside. I do suppose the paragraph that follows is on level all the way in which again to 2016, if not earlier than:
The Democrat Get together is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Pay attention, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Get together didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working components of the Get together reinforce one another. Go away apart characterizing the relationships between components of the Get together (ka-ching, however not completely) these components comprise a community — a Flex Web? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with property within the press and the intelligence neighborhood.
Word, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is proscribed by different lessons; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.
* * *
Realignment and Legitimacy
#COVID19
“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Normal Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be happy to contact me on the deal with given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reviews); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).
Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tricks to useful readers: anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3).
Keep secure on the market!
Covid is Airborne
Sequelae
“SARS-CoV-2 reservoir in post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC)” [Nature]. The Abtract: ‘Tens of millions of persons are affected by Lengthy COVID or post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC). A number of organic elements have emerged as potential drivers of PASC pathology. Some people with PASC could not absolutely clear the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 after acute an infection. As an alternative, replicating virus and/or viral RNA—doubtlessly able to being translated to provide viral proteins—persist in tissue as a ‘reservoir’. This reservoir may modulate host immune responses or launch viral proteins into the circulation. Right here we evaluate research which have recognized SARS-CoV-2 RNA/protein or immune responses indicative of a SARS-CoV-2 reservoir in PASC samples. Mechanisms by which a SARS-CoV-2 reservoir could contribute to PASC pathology, together with coagulation, microbiome and neuroimmune abnormalities, are delineated. We establish analysis priorities to information the additional examine of a SARS-CoV-2 reservoir in PASC, with the aim that scientific trials of antivirals or different therapeutics with potential to clear a SARS-CoV-2 reservoir are accelerated.”
“Determinants of the onset and prognosis of the post-COVID-19 situation: a 2-year potential observational cohort examine” [The Lancet]. “No less than 5–10% of topics surviving COVID-19 develop the post-COVID-19 situation (PCC) or “Lengthy COVID”. The scientific presentation of PCC is heterogeneous, its pathogenesis is being deciphered, and goal, validated biomarkers are missing. It’s unknown if PCC is a single entity or a heterogeneous syndrome with overlapping pathophysiological foundation. The big US RECOVER examine recognized 4 clusters of topics with PCC in keeping with their presenting signs. Nonetheless, the long-term scientific implications of PCC stay unknown…. Preexisting medical and socioeconomic elements, in addition to acute COVID-19 signs, are related to the event of and restoration from the PCC. Restoration is extraordinarily uncommon through the first 2 years, posing a significant problem to healthcare programs.”
“Lengthy COVID as a useful somatic symptom dysfunction brought on by abnormally exact prior expectations throughout Bayesian perceptual processing: A brand new speculation and implications for pandemic response” [SAGE Open Medicine (Raymond Sim)]. “This evaluate proposes a mannequin of Lengthy-COVID the place the constellation of signs are in truth genuinely skilled persistent bodily signs which can be often useful in nature and subsequently doubtlessly reversible, that’s, Lengthy-COVID is a somatic symptom dysfunction. First, we describe what’s at the moment identified about Lengthy-COVID in kids and adults. Second, we study reported ‘Lengthy-Pandemic’ results that create a danger for related somatic signs to develop in non-COVID-19 sufferers. Third, we describe what was identified about somatization and somatic symptom dysfunction earlier than the COVID-19 pandemic, and counsel that by analogy, Lengthy-COVID could greatest be conceptualized as one in every of these problems, with related signs and predisposing, precipitating, and perpetuating elements. Fourth, . Fifth, we describe the present theoretical mannequin of the mechanism underlying useful problems, the Bayesian predictive coding mannequin for notion. This mannequin accounts for moderators that may make symptom inferences functionally inaccurate and subsequently can clarify the best way to perceive frequent predisposing, precipitating, and perpetuating elements. Lastly, we talk about the implications of this framework for improved public well being messaging throughout a pandemic, with suggestions for the administration of Lengthy-COVID signs in healthcare programs. .” • That is the stupidest timeline. I ponder which method to Lengthy Covid will win out?
“One thing Terrible”
Lambert right here: I’m getting the sensation that the “One thing Terrible” is perhaps a sawtooth sample — variant after variant — that averages out to a completely excessive plateau. Numerous exceptionally nasty sequelae, more than likely deriving from immune dysregulation (says this layperson). To which we’d add mind injury, together with character modifications therefrom.
* * *
Case Knowledge
NOT UPDATED From BioBot wastewater information, September 5:
Again to a gentle upward climb.
Regional information:
The Midwest now movint upward as effectively. I’m unsure what the downward swoop was all about. Curiously, the upswing begins earlier than July 4, which neither accelerates nor retards it.
Variants
NOT UPDATED From CDC, September 2:
Lambert right here: Prime of the leaderboard: EG.5 (“Eris“). No BA.2.86 right here, not even within the be aware, however see under at Positivity.
CDC: “As of Might 11, genomic surveillance information can be reported biweekly, primarily based on the supply of constructive take a look at specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice every week; semiweekly.” Appears to be like like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.
Covid Emergency Room Visits
From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, September 2:
Lambert right here: One other Labor Day weekend drop, like Walgreens? Usually, three-day weekends don’t coincide with peak an infection!
Lambert right here: I modified this ER chart to a Covid-only chart damaged down by age. Word the highlighting.
NOTE “Charts and information offered by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous yr, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not the complete pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “similar to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is suitable for eachMR SUBLIMINAL I hate these individuals a lot. Discover additionally that this chart reveals, not less than for its time interval, that Covid is not seasonal, although CDC is attempting to get us to consider that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the present institutional equipment for injections.
Hospitalization
NOT UPDATED Bellwether New York Metropolis, information as of September 2:
Leveling out? I hate this metric as a result of the lag makes it misleading.
Right here’s a distinct CDC visualization on hospitalization, nationwide, not by state, however with a date, not less than. August 26, 2023:
No less than now we now that hospitalization tracks positivity, which is sweet. Even when we don’t know what number of circumstances there are. And positivity as excessive because it’s been at any time, aside from Omicron.
Positivity
NOT UPDATED From Walgreens, September 4:
-2.7% Massive drop, most likely attributable to Labor Day journey, although absolutely the numbers are nonetheless very small relative to June 2022, say. Curiously, these don’t correlate with the regional figures for wastewater. (It might be fascinating to survey this inhabitants typically; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and large peer stress, went and received examined anyhow.)
NOT UPDATED From CDC, traveler’s information, August 14:
Lambert right here: That is the CDC’s “Traveler-Primarily based Genomic Surveillance” information. And the variant information:
Deaths
NOT UPDATED Iowa COVID-19 Tracker, August 30:
Lambert right here: The WHO information is nugatory, so I changed it with the Iowa Covid Knowledge Tracker. Their technique: “These information have been sourced, through the API from the CDC: https://information.cdc.gov/NCHS/Situations-Contributing-to-COVID-19-Deaths-by-Stat/hk9y-quqm. This visualization updates on Wednesday evenings. Knowledge are provisional and are adjusted weekly by the CDC.” I can’t appear to get a pop-up that reveals a complete of the three causes (prime proper). Readers?,,
Complete: 1,174,291 – 1,174,149 = 142 (142 * 365 = 51,830 deaths per yr, at the moment’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “residing with” Covid (fairly a bit larger than the minimizers would really like, although they will speak themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I could need to resolve that is what the powers-that-be think about “mission achieved” for this explicit tranche of demise and illness).
Lambert right here: Massive as a result of over a weekend.
Extra Deaths
The Economist, September 4:
Lambert right here: That is now being up to date day by day. Odd. Primarily based on a machine-learning mannequin. (The CDC has an extra estimate too, however because it ran endlessly with a large typo within the Legend, I figured no person was actually taking a look at it, so I received rid it. )
Stats Watch
Companies: “United States ISM Companies PMI” [Trading Economics]. “The ISM Companies PMI unexpectedly jumped to 54.5 in August 2023, pointing to the strongest progress within the providers sector in six months, in comparison with 52.7 in July and forecasts of 52.5.”
Car Gross sales: “United States Complete Car Gross sales” [Trading Economics]. “Complete Car Gross sales in the US decreased to fifteen.04 Million in August from 15.75 Million in July.”
Retail: “If You’ve Received a New Automobile, It’s a Knowledge Privateness Nightmare” [Gizmodo]. “[ Mozilla’s *Privacy Not Included project] discovered that each main automotive model fails to stick to probably the most primary privateness and safety requirements in new internet-connected fashions, and all 25 of the manufacturers Mozilla examined flunked the group’s take a look at. Mozilla discovered manufacturers together with BMW, Ford, Toyota, Tesla, and Subaru accumulate information about drivers together with race, facial expressions, weight, well being data, and the place you drive. A number of the vehicles examined collected information you wouldn’t count on your automotive to find out about, together with particulars about sexual exercise, race, and immigration standing, in keeping with Mozilla…. The worst offender was Nissan, Mozilla stated. The carmaker’s privateness coverage suggests the producer collects data together with sexual exercise, well being prognosis information, and genetic information, although there’s no particulars about how precisely that information is gathered. Nissan reserves the precise to share and promote ‘preferences, traits, psychological developments, predispositions, conduct, attitudes, intelligence, talents, and aptitudes’ to information brokers, regulation enforcement, and different third events.” • The slant six wasn’t the one advantage of the Dodge Dart….
At this time’s Concern & Greed Index: 56 Greed (earlier shut: 59 Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 53 (Impartial). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Sep 6 at 1:26 PM ET.
Class Warfare
“The local weather disaster is a disaster of inequality” [Science]. “Traditionally, the premise that financial progress ‘lifts all boats‘ has justified maximizing progress, which ‘free market’ proponents typically interpret as demanding minimal regulation and redistribution. However this progress requires vitality, which largely comes from burning fossil fuels, the foremost explanation for the local weather disaster. And so far, markets have largely failed to cost the social value of carbon. Financial and local weather inequality are tightly linked, inside and throughout international locations, with richer nations and people appropriating vastly extra fossil fuels whereas hardly ever paying the social value of carbon and sometimes assuming that they will defend themselves from the adversarial penalties of their fossil gasoline use. In the meantime, globally, poverty carefully corresponds with local weather shock sensitivity. The world’s poor usually tend to reside in climate-vulnerable international locations and have fewer sources to protect in opposition to and get well from local weather shocks. Their meals and water are threatened by local weather breakdowns. Poorer individuals—those that work outside, reside in households with out air-con, or can’t migrate from flood or fire-prone areas—can pay the very best value for local weather disruption in even wealthy nations. Even when these with financial energy consider that there could also be a tough restrict to carbon emissions, they’ve incentives to behave swiftly to applicable most of these sources, revenue from them, and develop their economies, abandoning these much less outfitted, making a vicious circle that will increase inequality. Rising inequality undermines democracy because the richest wield appreciable affect over politics, which may diminish coverage efforts on redistribution, local weather regulation, and carbon pricing. This will likely clarify why world oil and coal use and carbon dioxide emissions are at file highs, regardless of humanity having identified for 30 years the doubtless disastrous local weather impacts of greenhouse gases.” • Commentary:
Why have not we acted extra shortly to sluggish local weather change?
In a brand new presentation, @algore argues it’s not b/c the know-how to scale back carbon isn’t prepared.
It’s as a result of the individuals who revenue from carbon aren’t prepared—and by no means can be, till we make them.https://t.co/883GZD8jjA
— Emily Atkin (@emorwee) September 6, 2023
Information of the Wired
“Remembering Doug Lenat (1950–2023) and His Quest to Seize the World with Logic” [Steven Wolfram]. “One of many surprises of LLMs is that they typically appear, in impact, to make use of logic, although there’s nothing of their setup that explicitly entails logic. However (as I’ve described elsewhere) I’m fairly positive what’s occurred is that LLMs have ‘found’ logic a lot as Aristotle did—by taking a look at plenty of examples of statements individuals make and figuring out patterns in them. And in an analogous method LLMs have ‘found’ plenty of commonsense information, and reasoning. They’re simply following patterns they’ve seen, however—most likely in impact organized into what I’ve known as a ‘semantic grammar’ that determines ‘legal guidelines of semantic movement’—that’s sufficient to typically obtain some pretty spectacular commonsense-like outcomes.” • “Fairly positive”? “In all probability in impact”?
Contact data for crops: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a verify if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me photographs of crops. Greens are wonderful! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you’d like your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it initially of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From EMM:
EMM writes: “Rhododendrons are a category act.”
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