Not Simply “Stimulus” Checks: The Marginal Propensity to Repay Debt

Gizem Koşar, Davide Melcangi, Laura Pilossoph, and David Wiczer

Households continuously use stimulus checks to pay down present debt. On this put up, we talk about the empirical proof on this marginal propensity to repay debt (MPRD), and we current new findings utilizing the Survey of Client Expectations. We discover that households with low web wealth-to-income ratios had been extra inclined to make use of transfers from the CARES Act of March 2020 to pay down debt. We then present that customary fashions of consumption-saving conduct will be made in line with these empirical findings if debtors’ rates of interest rise with debt. Our mannequin means that fiscal coverage could face a trade-off between growing mixture consumption right this moment and aiding these with the most important debt balances.

How Have Households Used Their Stimulus Funds?

We examine the CARES Act, a big stimulus bundle handed by the U.S. federal authorities on March 27, 2020. As a part of this bundle, all qualifying adults acquired a one-time switch of as much as $1,200, with $500 per further youngster. As a way to doc how households used these funds, we draw on a particular module fielded as a part of New York Fed’s Survey of Client Expectations (SCE). On this module, respondents who had already acquired their CARES Act funds reported whether or not they used them to spend or donate, save or make investments, or pay down money owed.

Utilizing these responses, we outline marginal propensity to eat (MPC) because the share of the stimulus cost a family spent, marginal propensity to save lots of (MPS) because the share a family saved, and marginal propensity to repay debt (MPRD) because the share used to pay down their debt. With these measures we doc three important information. First, households used one third of their transfers to pay down debt. That is increased than the common marginal propensity to eat (MPC), which normally takes middle stage. Different research (see Coibion, Gorodnichenko, and Weber (2020) and Sahm, Shapiro, and Slemrod (2010)) have additionally discovered massive MPRDs, suggesting that utilizing fiscal transfers to pay down debt just isn’t particular to the COVID-19 pandemic. Second, households with low web liquid wealth-to-income ratios usually tend to pay down debt and extra more likely to regulate their web wealth positions. Third, and relatedly, households with decrease web liquid wealth-to-income ratios have decrease MPCs. We present these two latter information within the chart beneath. Observe that we outline web liquid wealth because the sum of liquid property minus non-housing debt. For revenue, we use annual family revenue.

MPRDs Decline Whereas MPCs Enhance with Internet Liquid Wealth-to-Revenue Ratio

Supply: Authors’ calculations utilizing the June particular module of the New York Fed’s Survey of Client Expectations.
Notes: slope= -4.507** (left panel), slope=3.186** (proper panel); * p<0.1, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01.

The MPRD and the Results of Fiscal Transfers

The family conduct we doc will be defined by a mannequin that includes a easy commentary: Borrowing rates of interest improve with family debt. For instance, debtors with increased money owed typically have, different issues equal, decrease credit score scores, resulting in increased rates of interest. This induces households to make use of at the very least a part of their test to pay down debt, with a view to cut back their debt service funds and, thus, maintain increased consumption sooner or later. In our working paper, we formally describe this mechanism intimately. As well as, we offer proof for the quantitative form of debt worth schedules which can be wanted for the mannequin to be in line with our empirical findings. It seems that the ensuing borrowing rates of interest are additionally in line with what would come up from fashions with endogenous default and delinquency motives.

We discover that accounting for debt-sensitive rates of interest alters the consequences of fiscal coverage. We carry out three workouts to point out this. First, when rates of interest are debt delicate, stimulus and insurance coverage motives transfer in reverse instructions throughout households. Right here, the insurance coverage motive refers to households’ financial savings to guard their spending capability when revenue falls. We illustrate this within the chart beneath, which presents the 2 results of a fiscal switch throughout the online wealth-to-income distribution from our mannequin.

Stimulus and Insurance coverage Motives of Fiscal Coverage Transfer in Reverse Instructions throughout Households

Supply: Authors’ calculations utilizing mannequin simulations.

Within the chart, we group debtors within the mannequin by ten deciles of their web liquid wealth-to-income ratio on the horizontal axis. Due to this fact, every dot incorporates the identical share of households. For every quantile, we compute the common share of every rebate greenback that households spend upon receiving the test, in crimson, and the lifetime welfare acquire from receiving the switch, in blue. The chart underscores a transparent inverse relationship between these portions: households which have the largest consumption acquire from the switch right this moment could have the bottom welfare acquire over their lifetimes.

This outcome implies that policymakers could face a trade-off when designing fiscal coverage, relying on whether or not they want to maximize mixture spending or mixture welfare. This trade-off materializes additionally when evaluating short-run and long-run fiscal multipliers: debt-sensitive rates of interest decrease upon-impact consumption responses of the poorest households, whereas making these consumption responses extra persistent over time. Conversely, they improve MPCs of households with little debt, however make their spending responses much less persistent.

In our second train, we look at how these two results mixture up within the financial system and unfold over time. We present that, within the medium time period, an growing debt-price schedule amplifies the consumption results of fiscal coverage. For each greenback of fiscal switch disbursed to households, a discount in debt service funds results in an 8 proportion level further spending impact after seven years.

Lastly, we compute the common welfare and consumption positive factors stemming from the Financial Affect Funds by allocating the funds within the mannequin as that they had been allotted within the CARES Act in 2020. In our calibrated mannequin, welfare rises by 0.52 %, whereas 21 cents per rebate greenback are spent throughout the first quarter, which is, all else equal, about 1.5 % of nominal mixture consumption on the time of the CARES Act.

In conclusion, we have now offered new empirical proof for an underappreciated truth: Most households, particularly these with lowest web liquid wealth, use fiscal transfers to pay down debt. By doing so, indebted households face higher rates of interest and thus can eat extra sooner or later.  This underscores an extra insurance coverage motive for what have typically been too narrowly tagged “stimulus’’ checks. Stimulus and insurance coverage motives, nonetheless, aren’t effectively aligned throughout households. As such, policymakers could maximize both rapid spending or longer–run welfare positive factors by concentrating on completely different units of households.

Gizem Kosar is a analysis economist in Client Habits Research within the Federal Reserve Financial institution of New York’s Analysis and Statistics Group.

Davide Melcangi is a analysis economist in Labor and Product Market Research within the Federal Reserve Financial institution of New York’s Analysis and Statistics Group.

Laura Pilossoph is an assistant professor of economics at Duke College.

David Wiczer is a analysis economist and affiliate adviser on the Federal Reserve Financial institution of Atlanta.

Tips on how to cite this put up:
Gizem Koşar, Davide Melcangi, Laura Pilossoph, and David Wiczer, “Not Simply “Stimulus” Checks: The Marginal Propensity to Repay Debt,” Federal Reserve Financial institution of New York Liberty Avenue Economics, June 27, 2023, https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2023/06/not-just-stimulus-checks-the-marginal-propensity-to-repay-debt/.