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By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Affected person readers, this Water Cooler is gappy as a result of I needed to do some precise analysis, a number of instances [lambert sighs in martyred fashion]. Extra to return as I attempt to catch up. –lambert
Fowl Track of the Day
Jap Whip-poor-will, 10 Miles South Of Meadow Portage, Manitoba, Canada. From 1960, so extraordinarily old-school. “Recordist’s Notes: night. Additionally: cattle, Wilson’s snipe, one other whip-poor-will, horned owl. 4-hundred and seventeen examples of the ‘Whip-poor-will’ Name of BNA* or, extra appropriately, the track of C. v. vociferus.” NOTE * BNA = “Birds of North America.”
Politics
“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are actually a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
The Constitutional Order
Two households, each alike in dignity,
In truthful Verona, the place we lay our scene,
From historic grudge break to new mutiny,
The place civil blood makes civil arms unclean. –William Shakespeare, Romeo and JulietShakespeare says the 2 households are “alike” in dignity, however he doesn’t say how a lot dignity they really have. If Verona’s households are like our events, the reply is “not a lot.”
* * * “The Sweep and Power of Part Three” [William Baude and Michael Stokes Paulsen, University of Pennsylvania Law Review]. I extremely suggest this piece (and the following dialogue at NC, beginning right here). As a former English main and a fan of shut studying, I’m not averse to “originalism,” of which Baude and Paulsen present a magisterial instance, within the sense that understanding the legislation as a textual content should start with understanding the plain, public that means of the phrases used when the textual content was written. That’s how I learn Shakespeare, or Joyce, so why not the Structure? Simply so long as understanding doesn’t finish there! In any case, I’m working by means of it. One factor I discover is that there do appear to have been fairly loads of rebellions and insurrections, not simply the Civil Battle. To me, that is parallel to 1 lesson I drew from Mike Duncan’s Revolutions podcast (episode 1): There are fairly loads of revolutions, too. Alert reader Pensions Man summarizes Baude and Paulsen as follows:]
The authors undergo an exhaustive textual and originalism evaluation of Part Three, and their Federalist Society leanings don’t deter them from reaching their conclusion that officers in each State who’re charged with figuring out candidate {qualifications} ought to conclude that Donald Trump is disqualified from being on ballots due to the oath he took on Inauguration Day 2017 and subsequently violated by means of his function within the rebellion that happened on January 6, 2021.
Taking “rebellion” as learn (I have to do extra studying), extra on my persevering with protection of Part Three.
* * * “Fox Information’ Jonathan Turley: Federal courts could intervene if Trump wins the presidency whereas serving time in state jail” [Media Matters]. “President Trump may certainly pardon himself for federal crimes. For the state crimes, it may create some severe issues. The court docket would first need to sentence him into jail. However then federal courts could become involved to the extent that that will intervene with presidential features. We clearly haven’t been down that highway however we’ve got to look in the direction of it and it’s going to be a messy state of affairs. The courts are going to need to take care of it.” • Democrats had no downside “interfering” with “presidential features” after they launched RussiaGate. So there’s precedent. Which is that “interfering with presidential features” is jake with the angels, even, or maybe particularly, when spooks do it!
Our Famously Free Press
What:
The @FBI emailed me their proposed edits to my upcoming e-book. They need me to redact data re: Jan 6, Gretchen Whitmer kidnapping, and my assembly with FBI executives about my protected whistleblower disclosures. Hmm… No, I believe I will publish all of it.https://t.co/WC2qxKbhdc
— Steve Pal (@RealStevefriend) April 22, 2023
Don’t know the writer, haven’t learn the e-book. However since when do the organs of state safety get to censor books about home affairs?
2024
Time for the Countdown Clock!
* * * “Trump May Clinch the Nomination Earlier than the G.O.P. Is aware of if He’s a Felon” [New York Times]. “The previous president’s trial is scheduled to start out March 4, by which level 5 states are anticipated to have held nominating contests. The following day, March 5, is Tremendous Tuesday, when 15 states, together with delegate-rich California and Texas, plan to carry votes that can decide if any Trump challenger has sufficient political oxygen to stay a viable various. Primaries in Florida, Ohio and Illinois come two weeks later. Florida and Ohio would be the first winner-take-all contests, wherein the highest vote-getter statewide seizes the entire delegates fairly than splitting them proportionally. Winner-take-all primaries have traditionally turbocharged the front-runner’s path to the presidential nomination. Mr. Trump’s federal trial, if it proceeds on its present timeline, received’t be near completed by then. The collision course between the Republican Celebration’s calendar and Mr. Trump’s trial schedule is emblematic of probably the most uncommon nominating contests in American historical past. It’s a Trump-dominated conflict that can outline not solely the course of the 2024 presidential major however probably the long run path of the social gathering in an eventual post-Trump period.” • Dunno if it’s “Trump-dominated.” Who introduced the fees, and who set the calendar?
“Trump’s Free Speech Runs Up In opposition to Courtroom Decorum” [The Wall Street Journal]. “The one restriction Chutkan positioned on Trump within the Washington case is a bar on discussing the case with potential witnesses. And earlier this 12 months, New York Supreme Courtroom Justice Juan Merchan, presiding over Trump’s state case associated to hush-money funds to adult-film star Stormy Daniels, mentioned he wouldn’t impose a gag order on Trump even when prosecutors requested one. ‘Such restraints are essentially the most severe’ and the least tolerable beneath the First Modification, the choose mentioned, including: ‘That does apply doubly to Mr. Trump, as a result of he’s a candidate for the presidency of the US.’” • Thus far, then, all sides are jockeying for the battle to return. IMNSHO, battle would profit Trump, so he’ll do what it takes (no “guardrails”). I don’t suppose Trump would favor witness intimidation*, but when that’s what it takes…. NOTE * Can a “swamp creature” actually be intimidated? I doubt it. Now, if Trump intimidates any of the “contingent electors” who’re to testify, that will be a special matter for me, since they’re as harmless as anyone on this mess could be.
* * * Wait. What about my freedom? Why can’t I reside my life?
Not evacuating makes “a hazardous state of affairs”: DeSantis
Observe reside: https://t.co/o5YFpGCp3G pic.twitter.com/Jv5h6LOgZH— The Hill (@thehill) August 30, 2023
Sure, a hurricane is hazardous. However apparently a pandemic attributable to an airborne Degree 3 biohazard isn’t. Make it make sense. Actually, I’m ready for the CDC to suggest handwashing to Floridians.
* * * “Marianne Williamson Can’t Promote Prez Marketing campaign on TV … However Tiktok Saving the Day” [TMZ]. “Williamson has raked in over half 1,000,000 followers — essentially the most on the app in comparison with different candidates — and since making the change, she’s been polling above 20% with voters beneath 30. If ya can’t beat ’em, go viral.” • Want a hyperlink on that polling, however given Carlson’s success on Twitter — not that I belief the precise numbers, why would I? — it is sensible that Williamson would have some success.
* * *
Republican Funhouse
“Wisconsin Supreme Courtroom chief justice accuses liberal majority of staging a ‘coup’” [Associated Press]. “The conservative chief justice of the Wisconsin Supreme Courtroom on Monday advised the brand new liberal majority in a scathing e mail that they’d staged a ‘coup’ and carried out an ‘unlawful experiment’ after they voted to weaken her powers and fireplace the director of state courts. Chief Justice Annette Ziegler, in two emails obtained by The Related Press, mentioned that firing and hiring a brand new state court docket director was unlawful and ordered interim state court docket director Audrey Skwierawski to cease signing orders with out her information or approval. ‘You make a large number of the judiciary, the court docket and the establishment for years to return,’ Ziegler wrote to her fellow justices and Skwierawski. ‘This should cease. … I’ve no confidence within the latest hostile takeover and the chaotic impact it has had on the court docket, workers, and the general secure functioning of the courts.’ Liberals gained a 4-3 majority on Aug. 1 when Justice Janet Protasiewicz started her 10-year time period after successful election in April. Conservatives had held the bulk for 15 years previous to that. The emails are the newest signal of broiling tensions on the court docket since liberals took management.” • Mood, mood! (And what the heck does “making a large number of” imply? Did I not get the memo on this new lawyerly time period of artwork?
Democrats en Déshabillé
Affected person readers, plainly individuals are really studying the back-dated put up! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are numerous updates. So I should do this. –lambert
I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Celebration (“the Democrat Celebration is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated put up, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “reside” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Celebration is, actually, a tough downside. I do suppose the paragraph that follows is on level all the best way again to 2016, if not earlier than:
The Democrat Celebration is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Pay attention, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Celebration didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working elements of the Celebration reinforce one another. Go away apart characterizing the relationships between components of the Celebration (ka-ching, however not completely) these components comprise a community — a Flex Internet? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with belongings within the press and the intelligence group.
Observe, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is restricted by different lessons; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.
* * * “In New Hampshire Tackle, Sanders Calls for Democrats Tackle Company Greed” [Bernie Sanders]. Musical interlude:
However, if Democrats are severe about successful elections and addressing the foremost crises that we face, they need to go additional. They have to embrace the working class of this nation in a means which hasn’t been performed in nearly 60 years. It’s completely absurd that, given the anti-worker ideology and insurance policies of the Republican Celebration, that social gathering now has extra working class assist than Democrats.
It must be deeply worrying that, in accordance with latest polls, Democrats are dropping increasingly more assist throughout the Latino group and even amongst Black males. That has bought to vary – not only for the well-being of the Democratic Celebration however for the way forward for our nation.
The Democrats, as soon as and for all, should reject the company wing of the social gathering and empower those that are ready to create a grassroots, multi-racial, multi-generational working class social gathering in each state on this nation. Democrats, by means of phrases and motion, should make it clear that they stand with a struggling working class, a disappearing center class, and thousands and thousands of low earnings People who’re barely surviving.
Sanders must learn Thomas Frank’s Pay attention, Liberal!. They’d fairly die as a celebration then take Sanders’ recommendation. As I wrote on the time, a small however actual opening for Sanders to make this pivot personally was in 2020, proper after Biden confirmed he was keen to contaminate his supporters at superspreading polling areas to make his numbers. At the moment, Sanders was not solely a candidate, however a motion chief, together with his mailing listing nonetheless lively, and with some momentum (if solely he had received Texas on Tremendous Tuesday, and never simply California). Extra to the purpose, the upsurge in labor exercise and organizing that we nonetheless see at this time was already occurring then. Pivoting away from electoral politics to supporting all types of labor organizing, backed by a motion, on a nationwide stage would definitely have been greeted with decide in-level enthusiasm by a good portion of Sanders’ mailing listing; in all probability the one individuals who would have resisted critically would have been Sanders’ idpol-addled workers, already on the lookout for jobs with the subsequent marketing campaign. As an alternative Sanders — as certainly he warned us he would — shrank himself all the way down to a “progressive” Democrat. Ask your self whether or not the working class would have been higher off throughout our ongoing Covid pandemic beneath my various historical past, or beneath Biden. Too dangerous. That opportunithy won’t ever come once more; Democrats will be certain of it.
“Covid Denialism” [Eschaton]. Quoting in full as a result of Atrios is so terse: “Timelines get a bit jumbled in my head generally, however pondering by means of I spotted if the Covid vaccine had appeared 3 months earlier, Trump may’ve taken credit score for it (he nonetheless may, simply too late!) and possibly coasted to re-election. Would’ve wiped a lot of the covid denialism (and positively the vaccine resistance) away. As an alternative we’re nonetheless caught with it.” • It’s certainly certainly one of life’s little ironies that electing Trump in 2020 would have saved a whole lot of 1000’s of lives. However ya know, so far as the timeline, I posted this in Water Cooler on November 9, 2020* (the election was November 3):
The third discordant notice.
The Biden group was knowledgeable earlier than the press launch went out:
2) Biden group was knowledgeable final night time concerning the Pfizer vaccine’s preliminary findings. And his group is right in stating the vaccine continues to be months away from public availability. So till then, public well being security measures nonetheless wanted. #COVID19 pic.twitter.com/FQnLDmU0gX
— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) November 9, 2020
(The Pfizer press launch was time-stamped “Monday, November 09, 2020 – 06:45am”; in different phrases, after “final night time”.) The fourth discordant notice. And the fifth:
“BioNTech, Pfizer shares soar after COVID-19 vaccine candidate achieves ‘success’ in first evaluation” [MarketWatch] and “Inventory futures surge, with Dow futures up 1100 factors, after Pfizer vaccine information” [MarketWatch].
Lambert right here: Anyone with a paranoid and suspicions disposition can be strongly reminded of remdesivir. Remdesivir was hyped in a press launch, and instantly endorsed by an professional ([genuflects] Anthony Fauci), which had the impact of “ramping” (Yves’s phrase) Gilead’s inventory, in a way that will have permitted insiders to revenue who may need been conscious of Fauci’s plans earlier than they had been executed. We see the very same sample with Pfizer’s vaccine — solely this time, anyone on or related to Biden’s group may have profited. Why not, in spite of everything, inform the Biden group with the press launch, and never earlier than? Absolutely there are norms about that? In fact, remdesivir was additionally a humid squib, sadly albeit profitably for Gilead. One solely hopes the identical isn’t true of Pfizer, an organization for which fraud isn’t unknown.
Oh, and both Yglesias is inhumanly wide-eyed and harmless, or he thinks that is sketchy too:
heart>
Biden launched the names on his Covid activity pressure early this morning and inside an hour we had a 90% efficient vaccine. Speak about constructing again higher!https://t.co/vKEiDqObk9
— Matthew Yglesias ? (@mattyglesias) November 9, 2020
NOTE * Oddly, I couldn’t discover this on Google, however I did discover it on Bing.
“Pfizer CEO says he would’ve launched vaccine knowledge earlier than election if potential” [Axios]. From November 9, 2020, nonetheless germane. • In order that’s alright then. By no means consider something till it’s been formally denied. Flip Atrios’ put up round. Understanding what we all know now about election 2020, and likewise understanding what we learn about how Large Pharma manipulates its trials, are we actually to consider that Pfizer couldn’t have manipulated its personal inside timeline, such that the info to guage its vaccines was solely accessible after the election?
“Pfizer CEO: Our vaccine timing had nothing to do with politics” [CNN]. From November 9, 2020. Nonetheless germane.
#COVID19
“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Normal Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the tackle given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater stories); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).
Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tricks to useful readers: anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3).
Keep protected on the market!
Censorship and Propaganda
For some definition of “mission” and “achieved”:
Precisely this. https://t.co/mrpvb63dO3
— Conor Browne (@brownecfm) August 30, 2023
On the intense aspect, Social Safety payouts will likely be happening!
Variants
“1st Canadian case of extremely mutated COVID-19 virus variant BA.2.86 detected in B.C.” [CBC]. The headline is the shot. The deck is the chaser: “‘We’re not seeing extra extreme sickness, however it’s one thing for us to … proceed to observe’: Dr. Bonnie Henry.”
Transmission
“Scientists Sound the Alarm: COVID-19 Virus Is Quickly Evolving in White-Tailed Deer” [SciTech Daily]. “New analysis has discovered that white-tailed deer throughout Ohio have been contaminated with the virus that causes COVID-19. Alarmingly, the outcomes additionally present that viral variants evolve about 3 times sooner in deer than in people. Scientists collected 1,522 nasal swabs from free-ranging deer in 83 of the state’s 88 counties between November 2021 and March 2022. Greater than 10% of the samples had been optimistic for the SARS-CoV-2 virus, and not less than one optimistic case was present in 59% of the counties wherein testing happened. Genomic evaluation confirmed that not less than 30 infections in deer had been launched by people – a determine that stunned the analysis group. ‘We usually discuss interspecies transmission as a uncommon occasion, however this wasn’t an enormous sampling, and we’re in a position to doc 30 spillovers. It appears to be shifting between individuals and animals fairly simply,’ mentioned Andrew Bowman, affiliate professor of veterinary preventive drugs at The Ohio State College and co-senior writer of the examine.” • Not good for the burbs, the place deer are pests.
Coverage
“COVID mitigation make sense whether or not or not it’s a pandemic” [New York Daily News]. “one of many unlucky upshots of the intense politicization of public well being has been the outline of mitigation as all-or-nothing. Both we’ve got shutdowns or everybody breathes immediately on one another in a crowded room. In actuality, we should always get comfy dwelling someplace in between…. That may imply pushing to reinstate authorities funding protecting COVID exams and boosters free after it’s largely fallen by the wayside, not as a result of it’s a disaster, however as a result of it’s a superb funding and a means of really stopping a disaster. It may additionally imply selecting as a person to put on a masks throughout upticks in infections, skipping out on social occasions when you’re feeling sick, and pushing for employers to be extra versatile about employees staying house when sick. .” Or — comply with me intently right here — placing in your garments when you’re going out in public. Extra: “Let’s not overlook that contending with COVID hasn’t produced a definitive victory however an arms race, one wherein a very nasty rising variant may crash by means of the protections we predict we’ve established…. On that entrance, it’s good that the town continues to supply testing and vaccination totally free, making it now an outlier nationally. But these instruments are solely nearly as good as their utilization, so it’s on everybody to do their half. Nobody likes getting sick, in spite of everything.” • Cigarette smoking is not a matter of “selecting as a person.” So why are “people” “selecting” to exhale hazardous bio-effluent into our shared air given any type of deference in any respect?
Elite Maleficence
As readers know, CDC director Mandy Cohen recommends handwashing, however not masking, in opposition to Covid. Maybe she’s projecting? As a result of her personal arms are so soiled?
Given the vast majority of public well being messaging, you’d suppose that the general public was only a bunch of panic-prone individuals with filthy arms.
— T. Ryan Gregory (@TRyanGregory) August 29, 2023
Macbeth, Act 5, Scene 1: “Right here’s the scent of the blood nonetheless. All of the perfumes of Arabia is not going to sweeten this little hand.” Plainly Girl MacBeth has a Covid symptom: parosmia. I’m wondering how Rochelle Walensky and Mandy Cohen sleep at night time. Do the phrases “She has gentle by her frequently” apply to them?
Case Information
From BioBot wastewater knowledge, August 29:
Lambert right here: Comfortable recollections of tape-watching days! A flattening curve?
Regional knowledge. As we are able to see, the nationwide flattening is as a result of Midwest downward swoop:
I’m just a little mistrustful of that Midwestern knowledge. I don’t know why the Midwest can be flattening, and the remainder of the nation not. (At this level, allow us to keep in mind that depressives are the one character sort that precisely assesses danger, and that introverts make good actuaries.) So I expanded the regional chart to a 12 months:
So the discrepancy we see within the six-month chart isn’t unknown. (I additionally seen what I ought to have seen earlier than, that each one the peaks, whether or not beneath Donald, the First of His Title, or Biden, are within the Northeast. That is case counts, not deaths, nevertheless it does are likely to throw chilly water on the concept Covid’s continued prevalence is because of these darned Pink States and their vaccine refusal.
Anyhow, it did happen to me that Illinois held in fief by J.D. Pritzker, a person who’d seize the Presidency like a fistful of donuts if provided, however who for that very cause must look extra loyal than loyal, so I checked out Illinois wastewater within the final fifteen days:
No gaming right here that I can see. Not sufficient lower-case b blue. And the nationwide map:
Loads of blue in Michigan, however is Michigan actually sufficient to show the nationwide tide? Midwest readers, what do you see?
Variants
NOT UPDATED From CDC, August 19:
Lambert right here: High of the leaderboard: EG.5 (“Eris“). I’m not highlighting the BA.2’s as a result of the interactive model exhibits that these BA.2’s been hanging round at a low stage for months.
From CDC, August 5:
Lambert right here: Undecided what to make of this. I’m used to seeing a brand new variant take down the beforehand dominant variant. Right here it appears to be like like we’ve got a “tag group,” all working collectively to chop XBB.1.5 all the way down to measurement. I certain hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart relies upon, don’t all transfer on the inexperienced fields and pastures new (or have their entry to services minimize by directors of ailing intent).
CDC: “As of Could 11, genomic surveillance knowledge will likely be reported biweekly, based mostly on the supply of optimistic check specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice per week; semiweekly.” Seems to be like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.
Covid Emergency Room Visits
From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, August 26:
Lambert right here: I modified this ER chart to a Covid-only chart damaged down by age. Observe the highlighting.
NOTE “Charts and knowledge offered by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous 12 months, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not the whole pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “identical to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is suitable for eachMR SUBLIMINAL I hate these individuals a lot. Discover additionally that this chart exhibits, not less than for its time interval, that Covid is not seasonal, regardless that CDC is attempting to get us to consider that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the prevailing institutional equipment for injections.
Hospitalization
NOT UPDATED Bellwether New York Metropolis, knowledge as of August 29:
Nonetheless getting worse. However how a lot worse? I hate this metric as a result of the lag makes it misleading.
NOT UPDATED Right here is CDC’s map…. “In Previous Week,” as a result of there’s no [family blogging date]:
Orange = “substantial enhance” (greater than 20%). The cadence: “Maps, charts, and knowledge offered by CDC, updates Mondays and Thursdays by 8 p.m. ET.” So apparently, on Friday, I’ve to check the map right here with the one on the CDC web site to see if the replace has, actually, been carried out. Why are they making me suppose?
Positivity
NOT UPDATED Walgreens, August 28:
So, Walgreens is again within the sport (and how on earth did that debacle occur? We breathlessly await the information protection). The proportion of positives is the best ever, although absolute numbers are nonetheless small relative to previous surges.
NEW Cleveland Clinic, August 26:
Lambert right here: I do know that is simply Ohio, however the Cleveland Clinic is sweet, and we’re starved for knowledge, so….
NOT UPDATED From CDC, August 7:
Lambert right here: That is the CDC’s “Traveler-Primarily based Genomic Surveillance” knowledge, confirming the present surge, solely two weeks late. Positive can be helpful to know if there have been any BA.2.86 in these samples, although!
Deaths
NOT UPDATED Iowa COVID-19 Tracker, August 23:
Lambert right here: The WHO knowledge is nugatory, so I changed it with the Iowa Covid Information Tracker. Their technique: “These knowledge have been sourced, by way of the API from the CDC: https://knowledge.cdc.gov/NCHS/Situations-Contributing-to-COVID-19-Deaths-by-Stat/hk9y-quqm. This visualization updates on Wednesday evenings. Information are provisional and are adjusted weekly by the CDC.” I can’t appear to get a pop-up that exhibits a complete of the three causes (high proper). Readers?
Complete: 1,173,448 – 1,173,422 – 1,173,081 = 26. 26 * 365 = 9,490 deaths per 12 months, at this time’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “dwelling with” Covid (fairly a bit increased than the minimizers would really like, although they will speak themselves into something.–> If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I may need to determine that is what the powers-that-be contemplate “mission achieved” for this specific tranche of demise and illness).
Extra Deaths
The Economist, August 29:
Lambert right here: Again to nearly each day. Odd when it’s, odd when it stops. Primarily based on a machine-learning mannequin. (The CDC has an extra estimate too, however because it ran perpetually with an enormous typo within the Legend, I figured no one was actually it, so I bought rid it. )
Stats Watch
Employment State of affairs: “United States ADP Employment Change” [Trading Economics]. “Personal companies within the US employed 177 thousand employees in August 2023, the least in 5 months, lacking market expectations of a 195 thousand rise and following an upwardly revised 371 thousand enhance in July.}
Journey: “How The Steep Decline In Chinese language Vacationers Will Price The U.S. Extra Than $20 Billion” [Forbes]. “‘Earlier than Covid,’ Raimondo mentioned, ‘as many as three million Chinese language vacationers visited the US yearly, contributing greater than $30 billion to the U.S. economic system.’ In 2019, 2.8 million Chinese language guests accounted for under 4% of all inbound international vacationers to the U.S., but they accounted for 13% of spending. This 12 months, fewer than 850,000 Chinese language will journey right here, in accordance with the Nationwide Journey & Tourism Workplace (NTTO), the company throughout the U.S. Division of Commerce that tracks tourism statistics. That 68% drop in traveler quantity interprets to greater than $20 billion that Chinese language guests is not going to spend within the U.S. this 12 months. Three months after the official finish of the pandemic, the U.S. tourism business continues to be in restoration mode. Earlier than Covid, 79.4 million worldwide guests to the U.S. injected roughly $239 billion into the nationwide economic system, accounting for almost 10% of America’s complete exports and providers. In 2023, the U.S. expects to welcome 62.8 million international guests–a 21% year-over-year soar however nonetheless 21% beneath pre-Covid numbers. Inbound journey quantity to the U.S. isn’t anticipated to hit pre-pandemic ranges till 2025.” • Simply in time for the subsequent airborne pathogen.
In the present day’s Worry & Greed Index: 52 Impartial (earlier shut: 50 Worry) [CNN]. One week in the past: 50 (Impartial). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Aug 30 at 2:02 PM ET. C’mon, Mr. Market! By hook or by crook!
The Gallery
Materials actuality (1):
Coal Dockers, 1875 https://t.co/VmubwiBNeG pic.twitter.com/fVGt9yfTW2
— Claude Monet (@artistmonet) August 30, 2023
Materials actuality (2):
LS Lowry, ‘Going to Work (Manufacturing unit employees going to work on the Mather & Platt, Manchester, within the snow)’ (1943) pic.twitter.com/rYTijn0L3Z
— Christopher 🎶💃✊🏻🕺🎨 (@ChriXCoenen) August 17, 2023
Lowry appears to be like like a detective on the scene of a criminal offense:
LS Lowry on a note-taking expedition round Manchester, April 1958, by Frank Martin. pic.twitter.com/AQunbLeFyA
— Brian Groom (@GroomB) January 12, 2023
As certainly he’s: The crime is social homicide.
Class Warfare
“Amazon CEO reportedly tells distant employees ‘it’s in all probability not going to work out for you’” [MarketWatch]. “Earlier this 12 months, Amazon requested all of its employees to return to the workplace not less than three days per week by Could 1. That sparked a vocal backlash from staff, together with a walkout in Could. The state of affairs was exacerbated in July, when Amazon warned that some staff could also be pressured to relocate to the corporate’s major workplaces in huge cities. ‘It’s previous the time to disagree and commit,’ [Chief Executive Andy Jassy] mentioned in a latest workers assembly, in accordance with Insider, which cited a recording it obtained. ‘And when you can’t disagree and commit, I additionally perceive that, nevertheless it’s in all probability not going to work out for you at Amazon as a result of we’re going again to the workplace not less than three days per week, and it’s not proper for all of our teammates to be in three days per week and for individuals to refuse to take action.’” • He appears good. How’s the air flow, Andy? Positive, Amazon workplaces are hellholes, however are in addition they demise traps?
Information of the Wired
“A DIY ‘bionic pancreas’ is altering diabetes care — what’s subsequent?” [Nature]. “What they wished was automation — an algorithm that will analyse glucose knowledge and program the pump itself. Coalescing round this intention in 2013, the group debuted a hashtag: #WeAreNotWaiting. Then, in February 2015, group member Dana Lewis shared the code for an algorithm that she and two collaborators had developed and examined. ‘We didn’t set out do to something huge,’ says Lewis, now an unbiased researcher in Seattle, Washington. However quickly, individuals who had downloaded and used the algorithm shared their private experiences and gave suggestions. When customers instructed tweaks and potential enhancements, others tried them and reported again. Katarina Braune, an endocrinologist at Charité – Berlin College Drugs, estimates that round 30,000 individuals now use open-source know-how for automated insulin supply (AID). Some use Lewis and colleagues’ authentic OpenAPS system, which requires a minicomputer to regulate it, whereas others use both AndroidAPS (which advanced from Lewis’ system) or Loop, that are smartphone purposes.” • Wow!
Contact info for vegetation: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a test if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me photos of vegetation. Greens are wonderful! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! If you would like your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it firstly of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From TH:
TH writes: “It regarded wonderful after I took it… however now I’m seeing how taking this picture on the angle I did has made for some keystoning that has me questioning if I may have straightened any of these traces in modifying, or if to straighten one would ship others careening. I’m seeing how taking this picture on the angle I did has made for some keystoning that has me questioning if I may have straightened any of these traces in modifying, or if to straighten one would ship others careening. I like that this nursery (Sherman Library & Gardens in Corona Del Mar, California) has uniquely employed this cupboard as each shelf (drawer), and shade (cabinet)… after which, I all the time love a splash of multi-hued hydrangea flowers.” Effectively, my angle on all the pieces is fairly skewed, so maybe I’m not the most effective choose. Readers?
Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not coated by the annual NC fundraiser. So when you see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see anyplace else, please don’t hesitate to specific your appreciation in tangible kind. Keep in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common optimistic suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. Once I get no donations for 5 or ten days I get apprehensive. Extra tangibly, a continuing trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I think about that trickle when setting fundraising objectives:
Right here is the display screen that can seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:
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