Animal Spirits: Charges to the Hilt

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Posted August 23, 2023 by sean

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Since 2/19/20 — the height for the market earlier than COVID hit — the 20+ 12 months Treasury ETF has posted a complete return of -31.9% versus ARK Innovation’s $ARKK drop of 30.7%. pic.twitter.com/flFRsaJzn6

— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) August 21, 2023

A have a look at all of Michael Burry’s latest predictions.

In 2005, Predicted the collapse of the subprime mortgage market
-> Housing market crashes in 2008, International Monetary Disaster.

On Dec 2015, he predicted that the inventory market would crash inside the subsequent few months.
-> SPX +11%… pic.twitter.com/fpBj9V2Shq

— Adam Khoo (@adamkhootrader) August 15, 2023

It is not on daily basis you see a technique go nearly all the best way to zero in lower than two years. However this hashish ETF–which is slated for liquidation–has almost achieved it. It is down ~90% since its Oct. 2021 inception. Leverage and weed shares, dangerous combo. pic.twitter.com/h4KEuEUJzD

— Jeffrey Ptak (@syouth1) August 20, 2023

All of those are affordable takes:
-inflation continues to be too excessive
-fast progress is suitable with cooling inflation as a result of provide chain enchancment
-growth continues to be too quick to be in step with 2% inflation
-over time the financial system can’t deal with 5%+ Fed Funds

— Conor Sen (@conorsen) August 18, 2023

Extreme delinquency for auto loans is highest since at the very least 2006. But, the roles market is powerful.

So mainly, nobody has any thought what is going on on.

[via Wall Street Journal] pic.twitter.com/i0SvkjCrvB

— CarDealershipGuy (@GuyDealership) August 21, 2023

Closing my week pondering ideas from an AI professor @Wharton who thinks productiveness acceleration from AI will take 10-year bond yield as much as 6%.

Is bond sentiment too bullish or bearish – @biancoresearch and @dailydirtnap been debating.

Speak about a 🔥take.

— Jeremy Schwartz (@JeremyDSchwartz) August 18, 2023

Extra leverage and actual property hypothesis?

Solely 0.88% of house fairness is being utilized in HELOCs at present

The bottom degree since 1988!

It peaked at 6.57% pic.twitter.com/nFKLIx86tI

— TheHappyHawaiian (@ThHappyHawaiian) August 21, 2023

What a month-to-month mortgage fee would appear to be for a brand new house purchaser within the US, based mostly on the median present house value and the common 30Y fixed-rate mortgage, assuming a 20% down fee: pic.twitter.com/GITXvCvI2f

— Michael McDonough (@M_McDonough) August 22, 2023

Macy’s is tough to take severely.

Hikes shrink allowance after bodily rely… which raises loads of questions.

In search of -7% FY comps. Takes bank card delinquencies up.

*This* is what rubbish retail accounting seems like. A lot gibberish for a $4b mkt cap co. $M

— Jeff Macke (@JeffMacke) August 22, 2023

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