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…nicely, actual curiosity at the very least. Whereas within the years because the COVID-19 pandemic have seen nominal rates of interest rising, in the long term actual (i.e., inflation adjusted) rates of interest are falling. A NBER working paper by Obstfeld (2023) supplies compelling proof of this pattern. Present actual rates of interest are doubtless someplace within the 1%-2% vary. Causes for this pattern embody “demographic shifts, decrease productiveness progress, company market energy, and secure asset demand relative to provide.” Some graphics displaying this pattern are beneath.
One purpose why this might matter to well being economics is that many price effectiveness analyses embody a reduction price that reductions future well being positive factors and prices relative to well being positive factors and price that accrue within the current. Oftentimes, that low cost price is linked to the actual rate of interest within the economic system. If the actual rate of interest is falling, ought to the low cost price used for cost-effectiveness fashions and worth evaluation generally additionally fall? One would suppose so
You may learn the complete paper right here.
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